高盛董事总经理斯科特·鲁布纳 (Scott Rubner) 表示：“自 1928 年以来，7 月 3 日是标普 500 指数实现正收益的最高日 (72.41%)，其次是 7 月 1 日 (72.06%)，以及 7 月前两周其他具有统计意义的交易日。”FX168 Financial News (North America) reports that the best days and weeks of the year for the stock market are coming soon.
On Tuesday (June 25), Goldman Sachs said that if history is used as a guide, the S&P 500 could soar 4% next month, reaching a record high.
The bank said in a report this month that since 1928, the best days of the year have generally occurred in the first two weeks of July. #2024投资策略 #
Goldman Sachs managing director Scott Rubner (Scott Rubner) said: “Since 1928, July 3 was the highest day the S&P 500 achieved positive returns (72.41%), followed by July 1 (72.06%), and other statistically significant trading days in the first two weeks of July.”
On July 3, the average daily increase of 0.49% was 0.49%, compared to 0.36% on July 1. From July 1 to July 17, there was only two days of average decline, that is, -0.07% on July 7 and -0.01% on July 16.
“The first 15 days of July were the best two-week trading period of the year since 1928,” Rubner said.
(Source: Business Insider)
Furthermore, recent market trends suggest that the stock market was very bullish throughout July.
Speaking about the Nasdaq 100 Index, Rubner said, “These statistics from the NASDAQ have been shocking over the past 16 years. The NASDAQ has been rising for 16 consecutive months, with an average return of 4.64%.”
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 rose for 9 consecutive months, with an average return of 3.66%.
If a similar seasonal trend were to occur this year, a rise close to 4% would take the S&P 500 to a new high of 5,665 points at current levels.
As for what could drive more bullish returns in the coming weeks, Rubner stressed that record cash reserves of over $7 trillion in money market funds may soon flood into the market.
Furthermore, as rebalancing plans begin in early July at the end of the quarter and the second half of the year, passive stock allocation is likely to drive capital into the stock market.
Rubner said, “The new quarter (Q3) and the new half year (2H) is a time when capital is rapidly pouring into the stock market.”