Source: Zhitong Finance "Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%)." With the rebound of the stock market, the old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" seems to have been a bad advice once again. Last month, the S&P 500 index rose 4.8%, the best May performance since 2009. The NASDAQ 100 index rose nearly 6.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index rose 6.9%. Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities Trading Division said: "History doesn't really support this saying. Don't sell, leave the market (go on vacation), and enjoy the good times." The rising trend is still to be continued? If history is any guide, it may indicate that the rise of the stock market is not over yet. Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, Scott Rubner, Managing Director of the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Division and tactical expert, pointed out the following historical background for investors. Rubner stated that the S&P 500 index has risen 10.7% year-to-date, and since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%). "Since 1950, the median return of the last 7 months of each year (June 1 to December 31) is 5.4%. In the aforementioned 21 cases, the average performance of the last 7 months increased to 8.1%." Rubner added. Rubner also pointed out that the NASDAQ index has risen for 16 consecutive Julys, with an average return of about 4.64%.
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Tesla is about to lose a key record it has held for the past six years: selling more EVs in the US than all of its competitors combined.
According to the latest data from automotive sales data provider Marklines, in the 12 months ending in May of this year, Tesla sold approximately 618,000 EVs in the US, while other manufacturers of pure EVs sold about 597,000. Next week, auto manufacturers will begin reporting their Q2 sales figures, which will include hot new models from General Motors, Hyundai and its affiliate Kia.
Since the deluxe Model S overtook the Nissan Leaf in 2015, Tesla has been the bestselling electric vehicle brand in the United States. Since the takeoff of the Model 3 in 2018, Tesla's electric vehicle sales have exceeded the total of all other companies in the industry. But after the initial slow response, traditional automakers have been steadily closing the gap. In the first quarter of this year, Tesla's sales fell 13% year on year, while six of the top 10 electric vehicle makers saw stunning growth in sales, led by Hyundai/Kia's surge of 56% and Ford Motor's (F.US) surge of 86%. This trend continued in April and May.
Or may lose its dominance.
By the time this month's sales figures are tallied, Tesla may have lost its dominance in the US market. Unlike other automakers, Tesla only reports quarterly sales and does not disclose regional sales globally. Analysts use state registration data and international sales reports to estimate the company's monthly deliveries in the United States.
It is evident that the controversial political stance of CEO Elon Musk is weakening Tesla's dominance. Stephanie Valdez-Streaty, director of industry insights at Cox Automotive, said that due to significant differences in product cycles, 95% of Tesla's sales rely on two models. Competitors are rushing into Tesla's neglected niche markets.
"Tesla is facing tougher competition now," Valdez-Streaty said. "Elon has really moved the needle in the electric vehicle industry, but he's trying to compete with brands that are rolling out new models, and Tesla isn't rolling out anything new."
It's not just an auto company.
It needs to be clear that Tesla is still the largest electric vehicle maker in the United States. In the past 12 months, Tesla has sold more electric vehicles in the United States than its closest competitor, Hyundai/Kia, by more than five times. Tesla also produces the world's best-selling car, the Model Y, which is sold more than any other company's pure electric vehicles around the world.
Despite a sharp drop in its stock price, Tesla remains the world's most valuable automaker. Tesla's market cap of approximately $575 billion is less than half of its peak market value of $1.2 trillion in 2021, but still nearly 85% higher than that of the second largest automaker, Toyota Motor.
Some dominant tech giants in the market, such as Apple, Google, and Nvidia, have market caps exceeding $2 trillion. Like these tech giants, Tesla has ambitions for diversification. Musk has said that compared to its clean energy business, Cybercab taxi service, and humanoid robots, its consumer auto business will ultimately pale in comparison.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said last week that Tesla's stock price is at risk if investors view it as a car company facing increasingly fierce competition. But in the long run, Jonas expects Tesla's valuation to take off like other tech giants. "For Tesla, cars are like game chips to Nvidia. For Tesla, cars are like selling books to Amazon (AMZN.US)."
However, for the time being, the automotive business accounts for more than 90% of Tesla's revenue. It is worth noting that Nvidia and Amazon are also able to maintain their dominance in the aforementioned markets. But in the field of electric vehicles, Tesla may not be able to do so.
Editor/Lambor