Goldman Sachs pointed out that the first two weeks of July were the best two weeks of trading since 1928.
The best day of the stock market in a year is coming. According to Goldman Sachs' data, if history is any guide, the S&P 500 index may surge 4% next month, reaching a new high in history.
The bank said in a report this month that since 1928, the best day of the year usually occurs in the first two weeks of July.
Scott Rubner, managing director of Goldman Sachs, said, "July 3 has been the day with the highest positive return of the S&P 500 index since 1928 (72.41%), followed by July 1 (72.06%), as well as other statistically significant trading days in the first two weeks of July."
The average daily increase of the S&P 500 index on July 3 and July 1 was 0.49% and 0.36%, respectively. From July 1 to July 17, there were only two days with an average return rate of decline, which were -0.07% on July 7 and -0.01% on July 16.
Rubner said, "The first 15 days of July are the best two weeks of trading for the whole year since 1928." More importantly, recent market trends show that the stock market is very bullish throughout July.
The S&P 500 index performs best in two weeks during July.
Rubner said of the Nasdaq 100 index, "These data are amazing for the Nasdaq 100 index in the past 16 years. The Nasdaq 100 index has risen for 16 consecutive Julys, with an average return rate of 4.64%."
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index has risen for nine consecutive Julys, with an average return rate of 3.66%.
If a similar seasonal trend appears this year, the S&P 500 index will rise nearly 4% from its current level, setting a new record of 5665 points.
As for the factors that may drive more bullish returns in the coming weeks, Rubner emphasizes that the record cash reserves of more than $7 trillion in money market funds may soon flow into the market.
In addition, as the end of the quarter and the rebalancing plan for the second half of the year begin in early July, passive stock allocations may push funds into the stock market.
Rubner said, "The new quarter (the third quarter) and the new half of the year (the second half of this year) are exactly the time when a large amount of funds quickly flow into the stock market."
Editor/Somer