US auto sales in the first half of this year are expected to increase by 2.9% over the same period last year, but the market is concerned that the auto industry may not maintain this momentum by the end of the year. Product structure, 10-30 billion yuan products operating income of 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.
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US auto data company Cox Automotive said that inventory levels are rising, incentives are increasing, and uncertainty in the economy, interest rates, and the US presidential election is also increasing.
Cox predicts that sales growth in the next six months will slow to 15.7 million vehicles, an increase of about 1.3% from 2023. Moreover, unlike in recent years, this year's growth comes from commercial sales, not higher-profit consumer sales.
Cox's chief economist, Jonathan Smoke, said on Tuesday, "Overall, we expect some weakness in the next few months," "We're basically making some assumptions that we can't fully maintain what we're seeing. But we also don't think there'll be a crash."
Favorable to consumers
This situation is largely favorable to consumers, as during the COVID-19 pandemic, new car supplies were unprecedented and prices soared, forcing some consumers to wait for years to buy new cars.
But these conditions are unfavorable to auto manufacturers, as many automakers have achieved record profits during the global health crisis due to high demand and low supply of new cars. Wall Street has been predicting that most automakers will face challenges in pricing and profits compared to record or near-record levels in recent years.
Cox senior economist Charlie Chesbrough said: "There's a lot of uncertainty going forward, which could make recent sales success difficult to continue." "We're worried the second half of the year won't be able to maintain the current growth momentum."
Both commercial and rental show signs of double-digit growth, and Cox expects retail sales to decline by about 9 percentage points in the entire industry from 2021 to about 79%.
Winners and losers
Cox said the "winners" in the first half of this year are expected to be General Motors (GM.US), Toyota Motor (TM.US) and Honda Motor (HMC.US).
Chesbrough said that if Toyota can continue to grow, it may once again challenge General Motors as the best-selling automaker in the United States, surpassing all other automakers for the first time in 2021.
Poor performers include Tesla (TSLA.US) and Stellantis, with the former expected to see a 14.3% decline in sales and the latter expected to see a 16.5% decline in sales through June. In the first half of this year, Honda's sales in the United States surpassed Stellantis, pushing the Chrysler and Jeep parent company from the recent fourth to sixth place.
Earlier this month, Stellantis CEO said the company was correcting "arrogant" mistakes he and the company made in its US operations that led to declining sales, swelling inventories and investor concerns.
"Increasing supply means we're officially saying goodbye to a seller's market of the past four years...This means further deterioration of new car sales and dealer profitability."