Citigroup's report pointed out that the expected future product cycle of car models will be extended, and the integration of the automobile market may continue until 2031, which may lead to a recovery in the stock return rate of major auto manufacturers from the second half of 2025 to the beginning of 2029.

Unlike IHS's prediction that local brand market share will reach 63.9% by 2025 and stabilize at 62% by 2031, Citigroup expects local brand market share to reach 66% by 2025 and further expand to 78% by 2031. Due to more aggressive export drive, Citigroup expects market integration and concentration to be faster than expected by IHS.

Among new energy automobile manufacturers, BYD Company Limited (01211.HK) and Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock (09868.HK) are the only car manufacturers that will have a decrease in product lifecycle by year in 2025. By 2025, the hybrid product lifecycle of new energy vehicles will be about 23 months, far lower than the average level of 37 months for traditional car manufacturers. The bank expects the market share of BYD, Ideal New Energy Fund (02015.HK), Sokon, and NIO Inc. (ZK.US) to be higher than in 2024.

The bank raised its rating on NIO from 'sell' to 'neutral' and its H-share target price from 29.9 yuan to 32.2 yuan.