Source: Wall Street See
Deutsche Bank believes that the prospects for Nvidia are still optimistic, and AMD's AI business has limited room for growth; the memory market has weak supply and demand, and most of the incremental supply is allocated to HBM.
With the growing demand for high-performance computing, AI and data centers around the world, the semiconductor industry is booming. Among them, Taiwan, with its advanced technology and massive manufacturing capacity, has become an indispensable and important part.
On the 25th, Morgan Stanley released its latest research report, conducting an in-depth investigation into the Taiwan semiconductor supply chain and analyzing the latest market trends and future trends in detail. It summarized seven key conclusions, providing investors and the market with new insights and analysis.
The fundamental prospects of Nvidia are still optimistic.
Morgan Stanley's research shows that$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$The demand outlook for its products remains strong, with astonishing demand for H100 and increasing visibility for H200 growth. Although H100's delivery time is short, it is a natural phenomenon during the product transition period, and visibility is expected to improve in the next 3-4 quarters. Although the market's expectations for Nvidia have partly been reflected in the stock price, its outlook is still bullish.
The upward space of AMD's AI business is limited.
Although$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$MI300 is performing well in the market and the company's guidance goal is 4 billion U.S. dollars, but as the supply chain increases, the company needs to be prepared for higher targets. Although the CoWoS supply chain has not slowed down, there are some growth pain points in demand, and some customer needs are delayed. Overall, AMD is expected to achieve its full-year guidance target, but the competition pressure from Nvidia is greater.
The high-bandwidth memory (HBM) supply chain continues to progress.
The supply situation for HBM3 has improved, but HBM3e is still a critical bottleneck. Initially, SK Hynix will be the main supplier of Nvidia Blackwell GPU,$Micron Technology (MU.US)$which will boost the growth of H200. Mainland China is also developing HBM2 capacity, which may further enhance its prospects.
In addition to high-bandwidth memory, the memory market is still weak, but pricing is good.
Memory supply and demand are uneven, and although most incremental supply is allocated to HBM, overall demand remains weak. However, price sentiment is optimistic, and enterprise-level NAND prices will rise more than 20% in the third quarter, while consumer-level NAND prices will rise slightly.
The response to Windows on Arm is mixed.
$Qualcomm (QCOM.US)$Nuvia, as the first focus of Windows on Arm, has mixed performance in the market. Although its performance indicators are impressive, application compatibility and system costs are still issues. Market participants need to continue to promote retail and OEM incentives to reach the critical application developer support threshold.
AI supply chain generates some interesting effects.
Morgan Stanley believes that$Broadcom (AVGO.US)$has the opportunity to occupy a larger share of the optical PAM4 business. In addition, Nvidia's Blackwell's increased demand for testing strength may indicate that testing strength for future ASICs will also increase.
Overall market performance is disappointing, and concerns persist in the silicon carbide (SiC) field.
Other markets, except for AI, have weak performance, and industrial, automotive, and FPGA recoveries are poor. Morgan Stanley is cautious about SiC's prospects, believing that the mainland China supply chain is prosperous, and whether these wafers meet automotive-grade standards remains to be seen.
In addition, the research report draws conclusions based on market conditions in different regions, dividing them into four regions:
USA
Morgan Stanley continues to be bullish on Nvidia, believing that its trend is stronger than the large cap, but consolidating recent gains still requires time. Broadcom is recommended as an alternative choice in the AI field.
$Western Digital (WDC.US)$The company remains the top choice of Morgan Stanley, even though the NAND data points are mixed, the HDD business will help it achieve strong cycles.
The analog chip sector is expected to hit bottom and rebound in the second quarter.$Analog Devices (ADI.US)$is bullish.
Europe
$Arm Holdings (ARM.US)$Interest in it has been boosted by the announcement of Apple's WWDC and the increase in custom silicon, with analysis suggesting that Arm licensing fees in the mobile field are expected to rise in the next 2-3 years.
$ASML Holding (ASML.US)$It is also favored in Asia,$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$with adoption of High NA expected in 2028.
Greater China
The research report reiterates its bullish outlook on Nvidia's GPU supply chain, including Taiwan Semiconductor, KYEC, ASM Pacific Technology Ltd., and Xinhua Holdings Ltd.
Morgan Stanley is bullish on MediaTek's long-term potential in the WoA AI PC chip market.
South Korea
The DRAM market is driven by supply and demand dynamics, and prices will not ease until the second half of 2024.
SK Hynix is Morgan Stanley's top pick, and its HBM supply is expected to increase significantly by 2025.
Editor/tolk