2024 U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump has made headlines with his bold suggestion to replace income taxes with tariffs on foreign goods. Trump's policy, which has received near-unanimous skepticism from market experts, has already heavily impacted stocks dependent on the Chinese market.
The Data: A post on X used data from Goldman Sachs and Bloomberg to compare the market's confidence in Trump winning the November election and the performance of companies reliant on Chinese suppliers.
"Stocks vulnerable to tariffs have underperformed YTD."
— Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) June 25, 2024
Goldman Sachs via @MikeZaccardi pic.twitter.com/kWokj7iG4X
Trump's election odds bottomed out in early October at just under 40% and now sit just under 55%, according to the post. Since then, indexed stocks with U.S. suppliers have outperformed indexed stocks with Chinese suppliers by over 15%. It topped out over 25% in March.
Why it Matters: Goldman Sachs listed companies that stand the most to gain — or lose — by a second Trump term.
CVS Health Corp (NYSE:CVS), Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE:VZ) and Intuit Inc (NASDAQ:INTU) are among the largest constituents of Goldman Sachs' Domestic Sales Basket.
Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META), Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ:QCOM) and Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ:AMAT) are among the largest constituents in Goldman's International Sales Basket.
Many prominent figures in the business world have pushed back against the notion that Trump is better for the U.S. economy than President Joe Biden, including LinkedIn Founder Reid Hoffman. At the same time, others such as Cathie Wood have thrown their hats into the ring for Trump.
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