What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term? Firstly, we'll want to see a proven return on capital employed (ROCE) that is increasing, and secondly, an expanding base of capital employed. Put simply, these types of businesses are compounding machines, meaning they are continually reinvesting their earnings at ever-higher rates of return. Having said that, from a first glance at DaVita (NYSE:DVA) we aren't jumping out of our chairs at how returns are trending, but let's have a deeper look.
What Is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?
For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. The formula for this calculation on DaVita is:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.12 = US$1.7b ÷ (US$17b - US$2.6b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2024).
Therefore, DaVita has an ROCE of 12%. In absolute terms, that's a pretty normal return, and it's somewhat close to the Healthcare industry average of 11%.
In the above chart we have measured DaVita's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering DaVita for free.
What The Trend Of ROCE Can Tell Us
Over the past five years, DaVita's ROCE and capital employed have both remained mostly flat. It's not uncommon to see this when looking at a mature and stable business that isn't re-investing its earnings because it has likely passed that phase of the business cycle. With that in mind, unless investment picks up again in the future, we wouldn't expect DaVita to be a multi-bagger going forward.
On a side note, DaVita has done well to reduce current liabilities to 15% of total assets over the last five years. This can eliminate some of the risks inherent in the operations because the business has less outstanding obligations to their suppliers and or short-term creditors than they did previously.
The Key Takeaway
In a nutshell, DaVita has been trudging along with the same returns from the same amount of capital over the last five years. Investors must think there's better things to come because the stock has knocked it out of the park, delivering a 157% gain to shareholders who have held over the last five years. But if the trajectory of these underlying trends continue, we think the likelihood of it being a multi-bagger from here isn't high.
One more thing: We've identified 2 warning signs with DaVita (at least 1 which shouldn't be ignored) , and understanding them would certainly be useful.
If you want to search for solid companies with great earnings, check out this free list of companies with good balance sheets and impressive returns on equity.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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