①What is the current wholesale reference price for Maotai? ②How to view the price correction of baijiu?
Benefiting from the bullish trend of Moutai prices, the stock prices of alcoholic beverage companies in Hong Kong have mostly rebounded. As of the time of publication, the stock prices of Dynasty Wines (00828.HK), Zhenjiu Lidu (06979.HK), China Resources Beer (00291.HK), and Tsingtao Brewery (00168.HK) have risen by 16.98%, 3.44%, 1.44%, and 1.24%, respectively.
Note: Performance of other related stocks.
In terms of news, the latest reference price for liquor revealed today shows that the wholesale reference price for 24-year-old Feitian Moutai in bottles has risen from 2080 yuan the previous day to 2150 yuan. The wholesale reference price for a box of 24-year-old Feitian Moutai has risen to 2450 yuan/bottle, compared to 2420 yuan/bottle yesterday.
It is worth noting that after the wholesale reference price for 24-year-old Feitian Moutai in bottles fell to 2080 yuan yesterday, it was reported that Moutai will cancel the release of 12 bottles of Feitian Moutai and the opening of Feitian Moutai boxes. In addition, it was reported that aged Moutai and premium Moutai will also be temporarily suspended from shipment.
A Moutai dealer in a western province confirmed that the sales company has just been notified that the big box of Moutai will be cancelled, but there is still inventory available for purchase. "There is only the regular 6-box left." In addition, he said that aged Moutai and premium Moutai will be temporarily suspended from being released.
Stimulated by this news, Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) rose nearly 2% at one point during trading. As of midday, it rose 1% to RMB 1491.25.
Note: Performance of Kweichow Moutai.
How to view the price correction of baijiu?
Huafu Securities analysis believes that the sharp drop in Feitian Moutai's wholesale price in the near future has had an impact on the valuation of the sector. They pointed out that the direct inducement of the fluctuation of Moutai's wholesale price is the conflict of interests among channels caused by the online promotion during 618, but the deeper reason is the insufficient prosperity of demand side.
During the current industry adjustment period, the rational restraint of upstream distilleries in water release and the marginal changes in downstream demand have strengthened the role of intermediate channels as "reservoirs". Especially for Moutai with a long channel chain and many participants, it is easy to generate greater fluctuations due to negative concerns.
Huafu Securities predicts that under the dual impact of demand pressure and channel interest conflicts, the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai in the short to medium term will still face certain pressure, but it is unlikely to have a sustained sharp decline. They believe that there is a greater possibility of subsequent price rebound and recovery.