According to the research report released by UBS, due to the low base period, the improvement of second-hand housing transactions, and operational leverage, Ke Holdings-W's quarterly performance is expected to be better in Q2 than in Q1. The bank expects the company's revenue in Q2 2024 to increase by 15% year-on-year to RMB 22.3 billion, while the adjusted net profit will decrease by 4% year-on-year to RMB 2.27 billion. The bank has lowered the company's H-share target price from HKD 56 to HKD 52.5 and given a 'buy' rating.

The bank pointed out that due to weaker-than-expected second-hand housing market in the first half of 2024, the forecast of GTV (gross transaction value) for second-hand housing from 2024 to 2026 was reduced by 8% to 9%, and the revenue growth rate was reduced by 22% to 26%. Due to weaker-than-expected first-hand housing market so far this year, the forecast of GTV and revenue for first-hand housing from 2024 to 2026 were respectively reduced by 17% to 22% and 7% to 13%. For home decoration business, it is expected that the revenue will increase by 43% year-on-year in 2024 and 30% in 2025, as the penetration rate of its decoration business in new cities continues to increase. Due to the downward adjustment of revenue growth rate, the bank has lowered its gross margin forecast for the company from 2024 to 2026 by 1.8 to 2.2 percentage points. Overall, UBS has lowered its adjusted net profit forecast for the company from 2024 to 2026 by 16% to 20%, and the new profit forecast is consistent with market expectations.