The company's operating conditions in the first quarter of 2023 and 2024: In 2023, the company achieved operating income of 13.843 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.59%; realized net profit of 775 million yuan, an increase of 37.05% over the previous year; achieved net profit of 746 million yuan after deduction, an increase of 62.27% over the previous year. 2023Q4 achieved revenue of 3.136 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.09%; realized net profit of 68 million yuan, an increase of 214.02%; and realized net profit of 65 million yuan after deduction, an increase of 215.06% over the previous year. 2024Q1 achieved revenue of 3.551 billion yuan, up 5.95% year on year; realized net profit of 279 million yuan, up 32.68% year on year; realized net profit after deduction of 265 million yuan, up 28.44% year on year.
Continue to launch innovative products and enhance comprehensive service capabilities: 1) Metal packaging: In 2023, the company's metal packaging business achieved revenue of 12.039 billion yuan, an increase of -2.77% over the previous year. The company continues to cooperate with customer marketing concepts to provide customized services to achieve customer functional needs, while innovative packaging forms a differentiated competitive advantage with other metal packaging to promote revenue growth; 2) Filling: The company's filling service business achieved revenue of 151 million yuan in 2023, an increase of 0.53% over the previous year; 3) Other businesses: The company's other businesses achieved revenue of 1,654 billion yuan in 2023, an increase of 7.66% over the previous year. In 2023, the company will continue to promote innovative products and develop markets, optimize production capacity layout, and enhance the company's comprehensive service capabilities in product innovation and integrated services through in-depth cooperation with customers.
Promote an international development strategy and gradually expand overseas markets: 1) Domestic region: In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 12.642 billion yuan in domestic regions, a year-on-year decrease of 1.28%. 2) Overseas regions: In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 1.01 billion yuan in overseas regions, a year-on-year decrease of 4.75%. In 2023, the company continued to advance its international development strategy. The company co-invested with COFCO Packaging Co., Ltd. and Haoneng (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd. to invest and build a metal packaging product production project in central and eastern Europe. The company is continuously seeking development in overseas markets, seeking new market opportunities through overseas layout, deepening business cooperation with international customers, and steadily advancing the company's internationalization business process.
Profit forecast and rating: We expect the company's net profit for 24-26 to be 9.29 billion yuan, 10.55 billion yuan, and 1.130 billion, respectively, up 20.0%, 13.5%, and 7.1% year-on-year. The current closing price corresponds to the 24-25 PE of 11.27 and 9.93 times. Refer to the comparable company giving the company a 15 to 16 times PE valuation in 2024, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 5.42 to 5.78 yuan, corresponding to 0.75 to 0.80 times PEG in 2024, giving it a “superior to the market” rating.
Risk warning: Customer concentration is high, raw material prices fluctuate beyond expectations, and new business development falls short of expectations.