Zhaoshang Securities released a research report stating that since 2024, the social zero growth has been steady, and the growth rate of online retail and service retail far exceeds that of the social zero market. From the perspective of consumer behavior, the demand for experiential consumption has risen, and the tourism industry market is maintaining a stable and good trend, with a total tourism volume in the first quarter of 2024 recovering to nearly 80% of the pre-epidemic level, and travel during the 24-year holiday increasing in both volume and revenue. The bank believes that since 2024, the large-cap social zero market has steadily grown, with online retail and service retail showing outstanding performance, focusing on the three main themes of experiential consumption, cost-effective consumption, and interest-based consumption.

Investment advice: E-commerce and Internet-related sectors, pay attention to high-quality leading companies with low valuations, recommended Alibaba-SW (09988), Pinduoduo (PDD.US), JD.com (JD.US), Meituan (03690), Didi Chuxing, and BOSS Direct Recruitment (02076). In the retail sector, focus on interest-based consumption themes, pay attention to the "high-emotional-value" business models, and recommend Miniso (09896); bulk snack sales have continued to be highly prosperous, and the strong continue to get stronger, recommending Wanchen Group (300972.SZ). In the social services sector, demand for experiential consumption is rising, pay attention to leisure travel and cost-effective dining layout opportunities, and recommend OTA leader Ctrip Group (09961).

Zhaoshang Securities' views are as follows:

Macro: Large-cap steady growth, with online retail and service retail showing outstanding performance.

Since 2024, the social zero growth has been steady, and the growth rate of online retail and service retail far exceeds that of the social zero market. From the perspective of consumer behavior, the demand for experiential consumption has risen, and the tourism industry market is maintaining a stable and good trend, with a total tourism volume in the first quarter of 2024 recovering to nearly 80% of the pre-epidemic level, and travel during the 24-year holiday increasing in both volume and revenue.

E-commerce: under weak recovery, cost-effective e-commerce has strong growth certainty, pay attention to high-quality leading companies with low valuations.

Since 24, e-commerce has performed well, and the industry has returned to the user experience as the main theme. Various e-commerce platforms are promoting multidimensional service upgrades around the consumer demand for "fast, good, and cheap." At the same time, relying on the strong bargaining power of the ToB end, e-commerce has achieved stronger price advantages and benefited from the current consumption environment. The penetration rate of the industry is steadily increasing. In terms of competition, the growth rate of live-streaming e-commerce has slowed down, and the core consumer value differentiation of various shelf e-commerce leaders, and the industry pattern is expected to stabilize and improve. In addition, e-commerce price competition continues to advance, and cost-effective e-commerce growth has strong certainty under weak recovery. It is recommended to pay attention to high-quality leading companies with low valuations and recommend Alibaba, Pinduoduo, and JD.com.

Retail: focus on interest-based consumption themes, pay attention to "high-emotional-value" business models.

1) Stepping into the era of interest-based consumption, Miniso has accelerated its global layout under the advantages of "1+3" (one China supply chain + three global advantages of IP, design and channels). The interest-based consumption market is vast, with the global IP physical product retail market reaching 1.8 trillion. The company's "1+3" moat is solid, with China's current steady expansion and overseas store opening accelerating expansion; TOP TOY has ushered in a turning point in development and is expected to create a second growth curve. In addition, the company attaches great importance to shareholder returns, and it is expected that the future dividend payout ratio will not be less than 50%. Maintain a "strong recommendation" rating. 2) Focusing on "free snacks," bulk snack sales have high prosperity, and Wanchen is a multi-dimensional leader with the strong getting stronger. The bulk snack is currently in a growth stage, and it is expected that the industry will continue to maintain a fast-paced expansion; at the same time, the pattern is clear, and the current share is accelerating to the head. The Wanchen team is high-quality, with multiple advantages in the supply chain, warehousing and distribution, expansion, brand, and other aspects. Under the scale effect of the industry, it is expected that the strong will be strong, the Wanchen share will continue to increase, and profits will gradually be realized. Maintain a "strong recommendation" rating.

Social services: Demand for experiential consumption is rising, pay attention to leisure travel and cost-effective dining layout opportunities.

Since 24, the recovery momentum of domestic and outbound tourism has been rapid, and OTA platform performance has quickly recovered. It is recommended to pay attention to the repair process of outbound tourism and the expansion of overseas markets, and be bullish on Ctrip, the OTA leader. In terms of dining, the growth rate of social zero in the first half of 24 was slightly under pressure, and the expansion rate was slightly slower. In the future, it is recommended to pay attention to the layout opportunities of cost-effective categories such as fast food, pizza, and other segmented tracks. In terms of hotels, due to the slow recovery of business travel demand and the high base in the same period in 23, the operating data of hotels in the first half of 24 are under short-term pressure, with RevPAR, OCC, and ADR all decreasing slightly year-on-year in March and April. It is recommended to pay attention to the process of repairing business travel demand and the layout opportunities of low-PE chain hotel groups, and be bullish on the leading middle and high-end chain hotel, Atour.

Risk warning: Macroeconomic risk; intensified industry competition risk; risk of changes in travel policies; geopolitical risk.