Investing in stocks inevitably means buying into some companies that perform poorly. But the long term shareholders of Exact Sciences Corporation (NASDAQ:EXAS) have had an unfortunate run in the last three years. Sadly for them, the share price is down 66% in that time. And over the last year the share price fell 52%, so we doubt many shareholders are delighted. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 31% in the last three months.
While the stock has risen 8.5% in the past week but long term shareholders are still in the red, let's see what the fundamentals can tell us.
Exact Sciences isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally hope to see good revenue growth. As you can imagine, fast revenue growth, when maintained, often leads to fast profit growth.
Over three years, Exact Sciences grew revenue at 16% per year. That's a pretty good rate of top-line growth. So some shareholders would be frustrated with the compound loss of 18% per year. To be frank we're surprised to see revenue growth and share price growth diverge so strongly. It would be well worth taking a closer look at the company, to determine growth trends (and balance sheet strength).
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
Exact Sciences is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. Given we have quite a good number of analyst forecasts, it might be well worth checking out this free chart depicting consensus estimates.
A Different Perspective
Investors in Exact Sciences had a tough year, with a total loss of 52%, against a market gain of about 26%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 10% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Exact Sciences you should know about.
We will like Exact Sciences better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com