Source: Global Market Report On Monday, the turnover of US stocks ranked first, closing up 0.75% with a turnover of $38.014 billion. Since the opening on June 10, Nvidia's stock has been trading at adjusted prices after the split. The overall value of Nvidia is not expected to change after the split, and the lower stock price will make it easier for investors to reach. In terms of product structure, the operating income of 10-30 billion yuan products is respectively 401/1288/60 million yuan.
On the evening of the 24th Beijing time, the US stock market opened with mixed gains and losses on Monday. As we enter the last week of June and the first half of the year, all major stock indices are nearing historical highs. The market focus this week will be on the PCE data, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator, and financial reports from FedEx and Micron Technology. Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans said that slowing inflation data will open the door to a more accommodative policy.
As of press time, the S&P 500 index rose 0.18%, the Nasdaq Composite index fell 0.16%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.64%.
The S&P 500 index rose to a record intraday high of 5505.53 points last Thursday. In addition, the index rose 0.6% last week, recording its eighth weekly gain in the past nine weeks.
Recently, there have been signs of fatigue in the US stock market, especially heavyweight Nvidia, which has been continuously sold off. After the chip maker fell more than 3% for two consecutive trading days last week, it fell 4% for the week. Nvidia briefly replaced Microsoft as the most valuable company in the United States last week, but has since seen a pullback.
Technical chart analysts also pointed out that Nvidia has recently shown a downward trend in trading.
"After experiencing extreme price hikes, the stock may hit a speed bump in the future. It's not a concern about the basics of this AI giant but the stock has risen too high and too fast, making the market more cautious," said Katie Nixon, chief investment officer of Northern Trust Wealth Management in the United States, commenting on Nvidia.
Despite efforts by investors to cope with changes in interest rate expectations and economic growth, there is still a strong enthusiasm for artificial intelligence that is boosting the US stock market significantly.
So far this year, the S&P 500 index has set a record closing high 31 times, and the index has risen nearly 15% in the first half of the year.
David Wilson, a well-known short seller on Wall Street and Morgan Stanley strategist, said that the US stock market needs to be shaken by the bond or economic market to see greater trading breadth.
"In our view, the continued policy combination of substantial fiscal spending and tight rates is squeezing out many companies and consumers in an unsustainable way. Investors have realized this outcome, therefore, they are driving up the stock prices of only a few companies that are doing well in the current environment. Unless the bond market rebounds with higher term premiums, or economic growth slows down in a more meaningful way, we expect this narrow market performance to continue," Wilson wrote in a report.
Wilson recently abandoned his bearish forecast for the stock market in 2024 and suggested a barbell investment in high-quality large-cap growth and defensive stocks, while abandoning cyclical stocks and "avoiding the temptation to pursue real expansion."
Investors will be closely watching May personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data scheduled for release on Friday morning, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator. It is expected that the data will show further easing of US inflationary pressures.
At least five Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak this week, including San Francisco Federal Reserve Chairman Daly and Fed directors Quarles and Bowman.
Analysts at National Australia Bank warned that 'a lower PCE result is needed to prevent annual growth from rising during the remainder of this year, as a series of lows appear in the second half of 2023.' The Federal Reserve is well aware of this, as the final value of the PCE in 2024 is 2.8%, the same as the current level, which means an average monthly result of 0.18%.
A lower result may strengthen the market's bet that the Fed will cut interest rates as early as September, with the current pricing in the futures market indicating a 65% probability.
Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans said Monday that slowing inflation data will open the door to a more accommodative policy.
"The current Fed policy is restrictive. We will see improvements in inflation data. Hopefully, we can gain more confidence in inflation. Non-inflation data shows signs of cooling. The real economy does not show traditional signs of overheating. Constraints on policy relative to other economies must be considered. No comment on government finances," said Evans.
The political situation in France is still a concern. Mislav Matejka, a strategist at Morgan Stanley, said that rising political risks in France and concerns about fiscal policy will prevent European stock markets from outperforming the benchmark index in the short term. The uncertainty surrounding French politics will continue because the next French government may want to test what it can do.
"The continuing political risk and concerns about fiscal policy in France will prevent European stock markets from outperforming the broader market in the short term," said Matejka.
France will begin parliamentary voting this weekend, and the far-right National Front may get more votes than currently expected. Matejka believes that risks will remain high during the French two rounds of elections, after the elections end, and after the elections end. This is part of the reason they think it is too early to increase holdings in European stocks.
Several important companies will release their financial reports this week, including FedEx, Micron, Walgreens Boots Alliance and Nike.
Focus stocks
Overall, growth tech stocks showed mixed trends, with Nvidia and Qualcomm falling more than 3%, Taiwan Semiconductor falling more than 2%, and Tesla and Meta rising more than 2%.
Some China concept stocks have risen, with New Oriental up more than 7%, TAL Education up 7%, NIO and Xpeng up more than 4%, and Li Auto up nearly 4%.
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$The opening fell nearly 3%, continuing the decline of the previous two trading days. Jefferies Financial raised its target price for Nvidia to $150 and raised its revenue and EPS forecasts for fiscal years 2025 to 2026.
Jefferies published a report showing AI stocks in the US have been performing unevenly in the past month, with Broadcom joining Nvidia in strong growth. However, more investors are bearish on AMD and Marvell Technology and hope to find additional AI investment opportunities through edge AI and mobile fields. The report still believes it is too early to point out the losers for 2025, and Nvidia is still the industry leader.
The bank has raised its already high forecast for Nvidia again. Its revenue and earnings per share forecasts for fiscal 2025 have been raised to $181 billion and $4.23, respectively, and its forecasts for fiscal 2026 have been raised to $206 billion and $4.98. If all positive factors are considered in the estimate model, earnings per share for fiscal 2026 will reach $5. The bank has increased its target price accordingly from $135 to $150 to reflect higher forecasts and has a 'Buy' rating.
According to Omdia's latest research report, in competition with Nvidia in the AI hardware field, Google is significantly ahead among large-scale cloud providers.
$Apple (AAPL.US)$The stock price is generally volatile, currently up slightly about 0.5%.
The European Commission, the EU's competition regulator, said on Monday that Apple's App Store rules violate the EU's Digital Markets Act (DMA) because they prevent app developers from guiding consumers to alternative products. The EU's charges could result in huge fines for Apple.
In March of this year, the European Commission launched an antitrust investigation against Apple under the new Digital Markets Act. The investigation raised several concerns about Apple's business practices, including whether Apple prevented app developers from informing users about cheaper app subscription options outside of Apple's ecosystem (the App Store).
$Affirm Holdings (AFRM.US)$Receiving attention, the stock price rose more than 7% at the opening. Apple recently announced the termination of its 'buy now, pay later' (BNPL) service in the United States for more than a year, and will begin to allow installment payments through third-party applications such as Affirm, credit cards and debit cards later this year.
Goldman Sachs analyst Mike Ng has upgraded Affirm's rating to 'Buy' and raised its target price from $20 to $42.
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$The opening rose more than 2%. According to reports on Monday, electric car giant Tesla has laid off more than 14% of its staff so far this year. The figure reveals that the company is taking proactive measures to adjust its staff structure in response to potential market volatility amid increased global economic uncertainty.
After convincing shareholders to back Musk's $56 billion pay deal, Tesla is fighting a new legal battle to determine whether Musk can actually get the money. Tesla has submitted court documents to the Delaware Chancery Court, which earlier ruled Musk's pay package invalid, arguing that the shareholder vote on June 13 provided a 'principled solution' to enable a favorable ruling for Musk.
$Boeing (BA.US)$Facing criminal charges, the stock price is currently up 1.5%.
On June 23, US prosecutors proposed to senior Justice Department officials that criminal charges be filed against Boeing after it was discovered that the company had violated settlement agreements related to two fatal plane crashes. The Justice Department must decide whether to prosecute Boeing by July 7.
According to sources close to the matter, the Justice Department is still deliberating and has not made a final decision at this time.
The insiders did not disclose which charges US Department of Justice officials are considering. But one source said that the charges may be broader than the conspiracy to commit fraud charges filed in 2021. The source added that the US Department of Justice may not prosecute Boeing, but instead extend the deferred prosecution agreement for another year and propose stricter new terms. In addition to financial penalties, the toughest measures include requiring third-party supervision of Boeing's compliance process or requiring the company to plead guilty and admit wrongdoing.
Shein, the cross-border e-commerce platform, reportedly submitted documents to UK regulators in early June for a possible listing in London, which could be one of the largest IPOs in the world this year. In last year's financing round, Shein was valued at $66 billion.
Editor/Jeffy