FUTU Morning Post

US Stock Preview | The US bond market sends a signal of high interest rates! The long-term neutral rate will be at 3.6%; Nvidia continued to fall nearly 2% before the market, with a cumulative decline of over 6% in the previous two trading days.

Futu News · Jun 24 20:16

全球宏观

周一盘前，三大期指涨跌不一

美股能涨“多高多远”？华尔街大佬：到2030年底将触及8000点！

华尔街长期多头、投资咨询公司Yardeni Research日前表示，美国股市的牛市肯定会持续到本十年末（即2030年）。该行预测，到2025年底，标准普尔500指数有望达到6000点，而到2030年底可能会回升至8000点，这意味着该基准指数还将上涨46%。

推高美股、压制波动率，美股“空头撤退”到极限了？

摩根大通认为，支撑美股强劲上涨的动力来自两大股指ETF空头头寸的稳步下降。报告还指出，从历史水平来看，当前隐含的空头波动性交易已经相当“宽泛”（extended），因此，一旦出现负面新闻或事件，容易引发市场恐慌，导致投资者重新评估对市场的看法，从而增加卖压，逆转之前的空头回补趋势，进而加速股市的下跌，使美股面临更大的脆弱性。

美债市场释放的高利率信号：长期中性利率将在3.6%

近期降息预期有所升温，但一个关键的债券市场指标正向投资者敲响警钟。相关数据显示，目前市场对5年后的5年期利率的预测值为3.6%，比过去10年的均值水平整整高出1个百分点，并高于美联储的长期中性利率预测中值2.75%，意味着市场认为未来利率水平将保持在高位。

大摩：美股存在“三大风险”，继续推荐抱团或防御

大摩认为，当前美股主要面临三大风险：1、通胀和经济增长重新上升，导致美联储重新考虑加息；2、流动性状况恶化，导致股市下跌；3、市场对经济增长的担忧，容易把糟糕的经济数据转变为对整个股市估值不利的消息。其中第三点是最有可能发生的风险，在这种情况下，美股优质大盘股以及防御型股票的表现可能会更好。

比特币“大跳水”跌破6.2万！相关ETF连续六日净流出

加密货币领头羊比特币正在经历了2024年以来第二严重的单周跌幅，这反映出对比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的需求正在降温，以及货币政策的不确定性。今日比特币已跌破6.2万美元，目前下跌至61,025美元，为一个多月来的低点，值得注意的是，美国比特币ETF也经历了连续6天资金净流出的冲击。

热点要闻

明星科技股盘前多数上扬

比特币“大跳水”，相关概念股盘前走弱

英伟达盘前续跌近2%，此前两个交易日累跌超6%

周一盘前，$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$跌近2%，此前两个交易日累跌超6%。据SEC文件显示，当地时间6月21日，黄仁勋再度出售12万股英伟达股票。连同此次出售，黄仁勋在6月13日至今，合计减持英伟达股份72万股，套现总金额近9500万美元。

欧盟打响《数字市场法案》第一枪，警告苹果应用商店违法

欧盟委员会周一发布公告称，经调查初步认定美国$苹果 (AAPL.US)$的应用商店（App Store）涉嫌违反《数字市场法案》。这也使得消费电子巨头领到该法案今年3月生效后，欧盟反垄断机构打出的“第一颗子弹”。截至发稿，苹果盘前波动不大。

Affirm盘前涨近4%，与苹果合作提供“先买后付”服务+高盛上调目标价

$Affirm Holdings (AFRM.US)$美股盘前涨近4%，消息面上，苹果日前宣布将终止在美国推出一年多的“先买后付”(BNPL)服务，并将在今年晚些时候开始允许通过第三方应用程序 Affirm以及信用卡和借记卡进行分期付款。此外，高盛集团分析师上调Affirm的评级至“买入”，并将其目标价从20美元上调至42美元。

RXO盘前涨超13%，豪掷十亿收购联合包裹旗下Coyote

$RXO Inc (RXO.US)$盘前涨超13%，消息上，RXO以超过10亿美元的价格收购联合包裹旗下的轻资产货运经纪业务Coyote Logistics。该交易预计将在2024年年底前完成，需要经过监管机构的批准。

Argenx盘前涨近10%，新药获FDA批准治疗神经肌肉障碍

荷兰生物技术公司$argenx SE (ARGX.US)$盘前涨近10%。消息上，Argenx表示FDA已经批准了Vyvgart Hytrulo用于治疗神经肌肉障碍。该批准是基于一项临床试验，其中69％接受Vyvgart Hytrulo治疗的患者表现出临床改善迹象，包括行动能力、功能和力量。另外，瑞士银行分析师Xian Deng维持公司持有评级，并将目标价从410美元上调至430美元。

聚焦中概股

热门中概股盘前涨跌不一

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

（以下均为北京时间）

20:30 2025年FOMC票委、芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比接受CNBC的采访

22:30 美国6月达拉斯联储商业活动指数

次日

02:00 2024年FOMC票委、旧金山联储主席戴利就货币政策和经济发表讲话

编辑/Somer

Global macro

Before the opening on Monday, the three futures indexes rose and fell.

How high and how far can the US stock market rise? Wall Street leaders: it will reach 8000 points by the end of 2030!

Yardeni Research, a consulting company and long-term bull on Wall Street, recently said that the US stock market's bull market will definitely continue until the end of this decade (i.e. 2030). The bank predicts that by the end of 2025, the S&P 500 index is expected to reach 6000 points, and may rebound to 8000 points by the end of 2030, which means that the benchmark index will continue to rise by 46%.

Boosting the US stock market and suppressing volatility, have bearish bets retreated to the extreme?

JPMorgan believes that the power behind the strong rise of US stocks comes from the steady decline of bear ETF positions in the two major stock indexes. The report also pointed out that historically, the current implied bearish volatility trades are already quite "extended", so once negative news or events occur, it is easy to trigger market panic, causing investors to re-evaluate their views on the market, thereby increasing selling pressure, reversing the previous bear trend and accelerating the stock market's decline, making US stocks more vulnerable.

The high interest rate signal released by the US bond market: the long-term neutral interest rate will be 3.6%

Although there is an improvement in the expectation of interest rate cuts in the near future, a key bond market indicator is warning investors. Relevant data shows that the market's forecast for the 5-year, 5-year forward interest rate is 3.6%, which is a full percentage point higher than the average level for the past 10 years, and higher than the median forecast of the Fed's long-term neutral interest rate of 2.75%, which means that the market believes that future interest rates will remain high.

JPMorgan: There are "three major risks" for the US stock market, continue to recommend holding or defensive

JPMorgan believes that the current US stock market mainly faces three major risks: 1. inflation and economic growth rise again, leading the Fed to reconsider raising interest rates; 2. the deterioration of liquidity conditions leads to a decline in the stock market; 3. Market concerns about economic growth can easily turn bad economic data into news that is not conducive to the valuation of the entire stock market. The third point is the most likely risk to occur. In this case, the performance of US blue-chip stocks and defensive stocks may be better.

Bitcoin's "big dive" falls below 62,000! The related ETF has seen six consecutive days of net outflow.

Crypto leader Bitcoin is experiencing its second-largest weekly decline since 2024, reflecting cooling demand for Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and uncertainty about monetary policy. Today, Bitcoin has fallen below $62,000 and is currently at a low of $61,025, the lowest point in more than a month. It is worth noting that the US Bitcoin ETF has experienced a net outflow of funds for six consecutive days.

Hot news

Most of the popular technology stocks are up before the market.

Bitcoin's"big dive" causes related concept stocks to weaken before the market.

Nvidia continued to fall nearly 2% before the market, and it had fallen more than 6% in the previous two trading days. According to SEC documents, on June 21, Huang Renxun sold 120,000 shares of Nvidia stock again. With this sale, Huang Renxun has reduced his holdings of Nvidia shares by 720,000 shares since June 13, cashing out a total of nearly US$95 million.

Before the opening on Monday,$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$it fell nearly 2%, and it had fallen more than 6% in the previous two trading days. According to SEC documents, on June 21, Huang Renxun sold 120,000 shares of Nvidia stock again. With this sale, Huang Renxun has reduced his holdings of Nvidia shares by 720,000 shares since June 13, cashing out a total of nearly US$95 million.

EU launches the first shot of the Digital Markets Act and warns that Apple's app store is illegal.

The European Commission announced on Monday that it has tentatively determined that Apple's App Store violates the Digital Markets Act. This also makes the consumer electronics giant the first to be hit by EU antitrust agencies since the law took effect in March this year. As of press time, Apple's stock showed little change before the market.$Apple (AAPL.US)$Affirm pre-market rose nearly 4%, working with Apple to provide "buy now pay later" service + Goldman Sachs raised the target price

Affirm rose nearly 4% before the US stock market opened, and On news, Apple announced that it will terminate the "buy now pay later" (BNPL) service launched in the United States more than a year ago, and will start allowing users to instalment payment through the third-party app Affirm, credit cards, and debit cards later this year. In addition, analysts at Goldman Sachs raised their rating on Affirm to "buy" and raised their target price from $20 to $42.

$Affirm Holdings (AFRM.US)$RXO rose more than 13% before the market, spending billions to acquire Coyote under United Parcel Service

Wall Street financial investment giant, Goldman Sachs, recently held a symposium for its customers. Among them, the participants mentioned that China's concept stocks have been hit by continuous regulatory policies recently, and the equity allocation of overseas investment institutions may have to adjust their positions as soon as possible.

$RXO Inc (RXO.US)$Pre-market increased by over 13%. In news, RXO has acquired Coyote Logistics, a light asset freight brokerage business owned by United Parcel Service, for over $1 billion. The deal is expected to be completed before the end of 2024 and needs approval from regulatory institutions.

Argenx rose nearly 10% pre-market after new drug Vyvgart Hytrulo was approved by FDA to treat neuromuscular disorders.

Dutch biotechnology company$argenx SE (ARGX.US)$Increased by nearly 10% pre-market. In news, Argenx announced that FDA has approved Vyvgart Hytrulo for treating neuromuscular disorders. The approval is based on a clinical trial in which 69% of patients treated with Vyvgart Hytrulo showed signs of clinical improvement, including mobility, function, and strength. In addition, Swiss bank analyst Xian Deng maintains a hold rating for the company and raised the target price from $410 to $430.

Not to be outdone, after NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun announced the latest AI chip iteration schedule on the evening of June 2nd, AMD CEO Su Zifeng also threw out an iteration roadmap during her speech on the morning of June 3rd before the COMPUTEX opened. The company will launch the MI325 X and Ryzen AI300 this year, the MI350 series in 2025, and the MI400 series in 2026.

China concept stocks are mixed in pre-market trading.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

20:30 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President, Charles Evans, gave an interview with CNBC.

22:30 Dallas Fed manufacturing index for June.

Next day

02:00 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President, Mary Daly, gave a speech on monetary policy and the economy.

Editor/Somer

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