Kweichow Moutai opened low and jumped, with the lowest stock price touching 1414.01 yuan at the opening, a drop of more than 3% at one point. After shaking and rising, it turned red in the afternoon, with a closing increase of 0.38%.

Since this year, the stock price of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has risen more than 16%, while the stock price of Kweichow Moutai has dropped more than 12%. After a lapse of four years, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has once again taken back its position as the "market cap king" of A-shares.

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From May 8th to June 21st, the stock price of Kweichow Moutai fell sharply for 32 trading days, down 15.42%.

In history, the continuous and rapid decline of Kweichow Moutai is often regarded as an important signal of index bottoming out. Specific historical cases include the continuous decline of Kweichow Moutai from September 29th to October 30th, 2022, and the continuous decline from March 6th to 18th, 2020. After these two periods, Kweichow Moutai and Shanghai Stock Exchange both hit bottom and ushered in a rebound, starting a phase of upward trend.

1

Rapid decline, market rumors of Moutai intervention!

Over the weekend, Moutai once again became the focus. The reference price of Feitian Moutai bulk wholesale dropped below 2100 yuan, and market rumors that Moutai intervened to stabilize market prices...

On June 24th, today's liquor price showed the reference price of Feitian Moutai bulk wholesale dropped from the previous day's 2140 yuan to 2080 yuan in 2024, approaching the psychological barrier of 2000 yuan in the market.

There are market rumors that Moutai will cancel the placement of 12-bottle boxes of Feitian Moutai and abolish the unpacking and sales instructions; in addition, it is reported that aged Moutai and premium Moutai will be suspended from shipping.

The 12-bottle box of Feitian Moutai is called the "big box" in the market, and the big box of Moutai is the main source of bulk Feitian Moutai on the market. The release of the big box and unpacking instructions of Feitian Moutai in 2021 are related to the high demand for Feitian Moutai at that time.

What is the "unpacking instruction"?

At the beginning of 2021, Moutai proposed a new policy requiring that Moutai Zodiac Wine, premium Moutai, and Feitian Moutai in Moutai exclusive stores should be sold in open boxes. Among them, Feitian Moutai should be sold at the guidance price of 1499 yuan per bottle. Even if the customer wants to buy 6 bottles of Feitian Moutai, they cannot buy a complete box, but have to open 6 boxes of original Moutai and sell 1 bottle from each. This policy is called the "unpacking instruction" by the market.

After several months of implementation, Moutai canceled the unpacking instructions for the Zodiac Wine and premium Moutai in October 2021, and then canceled the unpacking instructions for Feitian Moutai in December. The 6-bottle box of Feitian Moutai is no longer required to be opened, and the price of Feitian Moutai has fallen. At the same time, Moutai launched the Big Box (12 bottles) Feitian Moutai, still requiring sales in open boxes.

Although this news has not been confirmed by Moutai officials, some Moutai dealers have confirmed receiving cancellation notices for placement and suspension of shipments. However, there are still stocks available for sale at present.

Although this news has not been confirmed by Moutai officials, white liquor analysts believe that after the cancellation of the unpacking instruction, there will no longer be two price systems for bulk and original Moutai in the market, which is conducive to the increase in the market price of Moutai. However, the actual effect still depends on the recovery of the economy.

According to media reports, some dealers said that recently Moutai has taken a series of actions to stabilize prices, and a large drop in prices is almost impossible. Voices like "Moutai falls by 100 yuan" or "Moutai falls below 2100 yuan" are not ruled out as someone trying to disrupt the market maliciously. They hope to create panic and buy at a low price, which just shows that they see that Moutai will rise in the future.

Faced with the continued decline of liquor and stock prices, Moutai related officials said that they are also concerned about stock price fluctuations. At present, the company's production, operation, and sales are normal, and stock price fluctuations are still due to market reasons.

Regarding the reference price of bulk wholesale of Feitian Moutai falling to around 2100 yuan and whether there are any price stabilization measures, the official said that the company has paid attention to this issue and will take corresponding measures, but did not disclose any specific measures.

Regarding whether to cancel the placement of 12-bottle boxes of Feitian Moutai, the above officials said that further verification is required. Regarding the stock price drop, whether the company will consider measures such as repurchase, the above officials said that these involve major company issues and need to be announced. There is no specific news before the announcement.

Well-known investor Tan Bin voiced his support for Moutai, stating that he has never announced that he would quit drinking, but it is true that he drinks less as he gets older. But at this moment, he wants to support Moutai. In 2013 and 2014, when Moutai was at its most difficult, he firmly shared the joys and sorrows with Moutai, and he still does it now!

In terms of the market, the Maotai Index has been weak due to the decline in Maotai's stock price. Before February 18, 2021, the Maotai Index had created a brilliant ROI with an overall increase of more than 30 times in 15 years. However, it has since fallen into a long bear market, with a retracement of nearly 50% from its high point.

In terms of the specific sub-sector of Maotai, the level of devastation is astonishing. Among them, Topchoice Medical fell more than 86%, China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation fell 83%, while Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products, Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings, Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology, and Longi Green Energy Technology all fell more than 75%.

(The content of this article is a list of objective data and information and does not constitute any investment advice)

2

Epic sell-off! Lost 1 trillion by clearing the positions early.

Masayoshi Son, who made billions investing in Alibaba, has been all in on the AI race over the past few years and regrets missing out on Nvidia.

In 2017, SoftBank, with more than a hundred billion dollars in hand after gaining more than 1000 times the proceeds from investing in Alibaba, discovered Nvidia, a promising newcomer in the AI field.

At that time, Masayoshi Son's SoftBank invested about $4 billion in Nvidia, with a shareholding ratio of 4.9%. However, in 2019, he sold the Nvidia shares he held, believing it was wise to lock in returns, as he made a substantial profit in just two years.

Now, it appears that a breathtaking fall has taken place, with the former highs now serving as the base. For a while, Nvidia was the world's stock king, briefly becoming the world's most valuable listed company.

According to recent estimates of market value, if Masayoshi Son's fund had held Nvidia shares all along, the current equity value would be nearly $160 billion, meaning that the decision he made five years ago has cost him over $150 billion (over 1 trillion RMB) in missed returns.

Masayoshi Son, who has retired from the forefront, made a public appearance at the shareholders' meeting after an 8-month absence, revealing a secret story between him and Nvidia's top executive, Jensen Huang.

Masayoshi Son revealed that SoftBank almost became the world's most valuable company because he planned to merge with Nvidia, but Huang declined to give Son a job and the acquisition didn't go through.

Regarding missing out on Nvidia, Masayoshi Son said that every time he thinks about those missed opportunities, feelings of deep regret well up within him for having sold the Nvidia shares.

In addition to Nvidia, Masayoshi Son also missed out on another star company in AI. He planned to invest in OpenAI, but the company ultimately decided to accept investment from Microsoft.

The only comfort for Masayoshi Son is that the stock price of ARM, which he holds, has been soaring since it went public last year, and its market value is close to $160 billion. As ARM's largest shareholder, SoftBank Group holds a high stake of 90%.

This investment was also a major turning point for Masayoshi Son. In fiscal year 2021, SoftBank faced massive losses and originally planned to sell Arm to Nvidia to ease its financial crisis, but the sale was ultimately blocked by regulators.

From today's perspective, the failure to sell ARM ultimately turned out to be a huge coup for Masayoshi Son.

Currently, most of the smart phones use ARM-designed chips, and its design will also be used in the next-generation chips that will drive AI applications.

On Friday, Masayoshi Son said he wants to achieve "Super Artificial Intelligence (ASI)," which will be 10,000 times smarter than human intelligence. He said ASI will be widely used in about 10 years, providing assistance for humans in areas such as diseases, accidents, war and even a meteor impact.

3

490 billion funds inflow into ETF, Saudi ETF is coming.

As A-shares shake and pull back, large funds are buying ETFs.

Last week, the A-share ETFs received a net inflow of more than 15 billion RMB, with stock ETFs receiving more than 12.3 billion RMB, and four 300ETFs receiving a net inflow of 8.7 billion RMB.

On June 21, Huatai Bairui SSE 300 ETF, E Fund SSE 300 ETF, Huaxia SSE 300 ETF, and Southern Securities CSI 500 ETF all saw a significant increase in trading volume. Last week, Huatai Bairui SSE 300 ETF had a net inflow of 3.05 billion yuan, E Fund SSE 300 ETF had a net inflow of 2.211 billion yuan, Huaxia SSE 300 ETF had a net inflow of 2.043 billion yuan, and Jiashi SSE 300 ETF had a net inflow of 1.394 billion yuan.

Since June, the Shanghai Composite Index has fluctuated and adjusted, and funds have continued to increase their holdings in ETFs. A-share ETFs have collectively received a net inflow of as much as 49.2 billion yuan, of which equity ETFs have received a net inflow of over 34.1 billion yuan, with SSE 300 ETF, STAR50 ETF, and CSI A50 ETF being the most popular.

As of June 21, since June, Huatai Bairui SSE 300 ETF has received a net inflow of 4.156 billion yuan; Huaxia SSE 50 ETF, Huaxia STAR50 ETF, ICBC Credit Suisse CSI A50 ETF have all received a net inflow of over 2.3 billion yuan; E Fund SSE 300 ETF, E Fund STAR50 ETF, and Fullgoal SSE Composite Index ETF have all received a net inflow of over 1.5 billion yuan.

This week, the market welcomed the launch of the heavyweight QDII ETF, Southern Fund's Southern Dongying Saudi Arabia ETF (159329) and Huatai Bairui Southern Dongying Saudi Arabia ETF (520830), which went on sale today. The deadline for fundraising is July 2, with a fundraising period of 9 days.

Due to a shortage of QDII quotas, both funds have set an upper limit of 1 billion yuan for their fundraising size, and the online subscription threshold for both funds is 1,000 shares or multiples thereof.

Both products operate in the form of mutual hanging, with the main holdings being the Hong Kong stocks of Southern Dongying Saudi Arabia ETF, whose underlying asset is the FTSE Saudi Arabia Index, whose construction concept is similar to the CSI 50 of the A-share market. The product's benchmark index, the FTSE Saudi Arabia Index, covers over 50 large and medium-sized listed companies in Saudi Arabia, with weighted stocks including Rajhi Bank, National Bank of Saudi Arabia, Saudi Aramco, ACWA Power, Saudi Basic Industries, Saudi Telecom, and Saudi Arabian Mining, among other companies.

With a cloth on my head, I am the richest in the world. The Saudi ETF provides A-share investors with a simple and convenient investment tool for layouting the Saudi capital market.

Cross-border ETFs have gradually become an important tool for global asset allocation. There are currently 75 QDII ETFs listed on the A-share market, including 12 ETFs tracking the NASDAQ 100, 10 ETFs tracking the Hang Seng Index, and also including cross-border ETFs tracking the S&P 500, Nikkei 225, German DAX30, French CAC40, Southeast Asian technology, and South Korean semiconductors, covering major economies and markets worldwide.