Guosen Securities: Maintain Tencent (00700) 'outperform the market' rating, DNF mobile game has been taken down from the Android app store and returned to the top of the list.

Zhitong Finance · Jun 24 09:54

智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研究报告称，维持腾讯控股(00700)“优于大市”评级。该行认为伴随游戏行业发展进入平稳期，游戏行业特征将呈现游戏份额向头部厂商和尾部厂商集中，核心原因为腰部厂商如果缺乏长生命周期的大DAU产品，难以长期承受高品质游戏开发的成本，或面临竞争力下滑。因此该行继续推荐腾讯，未来公司利润释放确定性高、可持续性强，收入组合变动和经营杠杆是长期利润释放的驱动力。此外，DNF手游的优异表现再次证明腾讯游戏的长线运营能力。

事项：2024年6月19日，《地下城与勇士：起源》(后称：DNF手游)官方公告称，因合约到期，6月20日起，DNF手游将不再上架部分安卓平台的应用商店，比如vivo、OPPO等。腾讯提倡安卓端玩家在游戏官网进行下载。

国信证券主要观点如下：

下架部分安卓应用商店有望提升游戏的利润率，当前部分其他游戏厂商已经开始选择优化渠道。

华为、OPPO、vivo等主流安卓手机厂商联合成立“硬核联盟”，统一将游戏开发者分成比例定为50%，高于苹果和Google的30%。但由于手游下载仍依赖应用商店等传统渠道，游戏厂商不得不接受这一分成比例。DNF手游不再上架安卓渠道，减少的渠道分成费用，预计将促进腾讯游戏毛利率提升。事实上，2023年8月，网易《全明星街球派对》就打出“不上架安卓渠道，全服玩家瓜分15亿分成”的口号，成为网易旗下首个不上线安卓渠道的游戏。

预计DNF手游上线首月流水可达50亿，强IP和优质内容将持续引领游戏行业增长。

根据七麦数据畅销榜单，截至6月21日上线32天，DNF手游连续31天稳居国内IOS游戏畅销榜榜首。根据Sensor Tower的数据，在5月上架后的11天里，该游戏在国内iOS市场的收入已经超过《王者荣耀》和《和平精英》的收入总和，使得5月腾讯游戏在移动端的收入实现了12%的增长。该行预估DNF手游首月流水可达50亿元。由于DNF上线以来取得的优异表现，用户对优质内容的追捧和对IP的喜爱奠定了该款游戏的成功，也预示着游戏行业已逐步完成从“渠道为王”向“内容为王”的过渡，下架部分安卓应用商店预计将不会对该游戏流水产生明显影响。实际上，2020年，米哈游旗下的《原神》拒绝上架安卓部分渠道，但其在上线当月月活近千万，一个季度流水接近50亿。《原神》踢开硬核联盟后，依然在国内外市场取得空前成功，证明了好游戏并不依赖渠道推广，可以凭借品质和口碑持续吸引玩家。从当前《原神》手游下载渠道比例来看，Taptap占比15%，小米占比15%，百度占比13%，AppStore占比11%。

风险提示：政策风险;疫情反复导致宏观经济疲软的风险;广告行业竞争激烈的风险;新游戏不能如期上线的风险等。

Zhongtong Finance APP learned that Guosen Securities released a research report stating that it maintains Tencent Holdings (00700) with an "outperform market" rating. The bank believes that with the development of the game industry entering a steady period, the characteristics of the game industry will present a concentration of game market share to leading and lagging manufacturers. The core reason is that if the middle-level manufacturers lack large DAU products with long life cycles, it is difficult to sustain the cost of high-quality game development in the long term, or face declining competitiveness. Therefore, the bank continues to recommend Tencent, and the future company's profit release has high certainty and strong sustainability, and the changing income portfolio and operating leverage are driving long-term profit release. In addition, the outstanding performance of DNF mobile game once again proves Tencent's long-term operation capabilities of games.

Announcement: On June 19, 2024, Dungeon and Fighter: Origin (hereafter referred to as DNF mobile game) official announced that due to the expiration of the contract, from June 20, DNF mobile game will no longer be available on some Android platform application stores, such as vivo, OPPO, etc. Tencent advocates that Android players download the game from the official website.

Guosen Securities' main points are as follows:

Removing DNF mobile game from some Android application stores is expected to increase the game's gross margin. Some other game developers have already started to optimize channels.

Mainstream Android phone manufacturers such as Huawei, OPPO, and vivo have jointly established the "hardcore alliance," which uniformly divides game developers into a ratio of 50%, higher than Apple and Google's 30%. However, since the download of mobile games still relies on traditional channels such as application stores, game developers have to accept this revenue-sharing ratio. DNF mobile game no longer being available on Android channels is expected to reduce channel revenue-sharing fees and promote Tencent game's gross margin. In fact, in August 2023, NetEase's "All-Star Streetball Party" announced that it will not be available on Android channels, becoming the first game not available on Android channels under NetEase.

It is expected that DNF mobile game will achieve a monthly revenue of 5 billion yuan after going online, and its strong IP and high-quality content will continue to lead the growth of the game industry.

According to the Seven Maitreya Data Bestseller List, as of June 21, after going online for 32 days, DNF mobile game has been steadily leading the domestic IOS game bestseller list for 31 consecutive days. According to Sensor Tower's data, in the 11 days after its launch in May, the game's revenue in the domestic iOS market had exceeded the total revenue of "King of Glory" and "Peace Elite," achieving a 12% growth in Tencent Games' mobile revenue in May. The bank estimates that DNF mobile game's monthly revenue is expected to reach 5 billion yuan. Due to the excellent performance of DNF since its launch, user demand for high-quality content and IP has laid the foundation for the success of the game and indicated that the game industry has gradually transitioned from a "channel-centric" model to a "content-centric" model. Removing DNF mobile game from some Android application stores is not expected to have a significant impact on the game's revenue. In fact, in 2020, after MiHoYo's "Genshin Impact" refused to be available on some Android channels, its monthly activity was nearly 10 million, and its quarterly revenue was close to 5 billion yuan. After kicking out of the hardcore alliance, "Genshin Impact" still achieved unprecedented success in domestic and foreign markets, proving that good games do not rely on channel promotion but can continue to attract players through quality and reputation. According to the current download channel ratio of "Genshin Impact" mobile game, Taptap accounts for 15%, Xiaomi accounts for 15%, Baidu accounts for 13%, and App Store accounts for 11%.

Risk prompts: policy risks; risks of the macroeconomic slowdown caused by the recurrence of the epidemic; risks of fierce competition in the advertising industry; risks of new games not being launched on time, etc.

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国信证券：维持腾讯控股(00700)“优于大市”评级 DNF手游下架安卓应用商店重回榜首

Guosen Securities: Maintain Tencent (00700) 'outperform the market' rating, DNF mobile game has been taken down from the Android app store and returned to the top of the list.

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