As informed by the WiseNews APP, two top Wall Street analysts have reached a consensus, emphasizing that the global weight loss drug market leaders 'Noli' - namely Danish pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk (NVO.US) and Eli Lilly (LLY.US)'s Wegovy (semaglutide) and weight loss drug Zepbound (tesofensine) have achieved huge success, and even if other weight loss drugs are approved, 'Noli' may continue to dominate the extremely profitable weight loss drug market.

Holly Morris, Managing Director of the Asset Management division of JPMorgan specializing in healthcare investment business, believes that the two pharmaceutical giants have been prepared to fully control this area due to their scale and early pushing of weight loss treatment methods into global markets.

On June 18th Eastern Time, at the Seeking Alpha Investment Summit held in New York, Morris from JPMorgan pointed out in the Wall Street analyst group discussion on 'GLP-1' weight loss drugs that although there are new entrants, the field is basically monopolized by Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.

'Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have a great deal of intellectual property in the weight loss drug field and have invested billions of dollars in establishing research and development and supply systems around the supply chain. I think it would be difficult for any company to surpass Lilly or Novo Nordisk,' Morris said at the investment summit.

Louise Chen, Managing Director of Cantor Fitzgerald, focusing on large pharmaceutical stocks, added that new entrants need to differentiate themselves to make an impact in this (weight loss drug) area. This could include breakthrough oral medication products, weight loss drugs with a lower dosing frequency, maintaining muscle mass, or offering products in combination.

She also said that small companies as independent entities will find it difficult to achieve large-scale commercialization. She added: 'If they want to succeed, I think they will have to be acquired.'

Chen expects that GLP-1 weight loss drugs (including Eli Lilly's weight loss injection tesofensine and Novo Nordisk's semaglutide) will have sales of $45 billion this year and are expected to reach about $65 billion in 2025, but the latter may be higher if supply issues are resolved. Within five years, she believes that GLP-1 weight loss drugs are a $100 billion market.

Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are also actively developing other types of weight loss drugs. The former has the oral GLP-1 version orforglipron and the GLP-1, GIP, and GCGR triple agonist reaturide, both of which are in phase 3 clinical trials. The latter has a brand-new combination of CagriSema, cagrilintide (a dual glucagon-like peptide and calcitonin receptor agonist) in phase 3 and monlunabant (a CB1 receptor blocker) in phase 2.

Other mid-stage candidate weight loss drugs include Viking Therapeutics' (VKTX.US) VK2735, which has the title of 'the new darling of weight loss drugs', Structure Therapeutics' (GPCR.US.US) GSBR-1290, Altimmune (ALT.US)'s pemvidutide currently under development, Zealand Pharma (ZLDPF.US)'s petrelintide, Pfizer's (PFE.US) danuglipron currently under development and Amgen (AMGN.US)'s AMG133, also known as MariTide.

Pharmaceutical giant Roche (RHHBY.US) acquired two early-stage weight loss candidate drugs, CT-996 and CT-388, by acquiring Carmot Therapeutics.

Morris believes that a weight loss therapy that works better does not necessarily replace another weight loss therapy with important market share. 'I'm still trying to find a monetization combination that can win this market. We have now reached a very significant level of weight loss, such as over 25%, but we have not reached the level that everyone needs,' she added.

She added: 'I think we'll see this profitable market really broken down.' 'It's not necessarily that one weight loss drug has the best efficacy, so it will replace and erode the drugs of other pharmaceutical companies.'

According to the latest survey data released by the well-known health research institution KFF, 1 out of every 8 American adults has tried new diabetes and anti-obesity drugs for rapid growth, including Novo Nordisk's Ozempic and Lilly's Zepbound, which have been called "miracle weight loss drugs", highlighting the rapid popularity of these treatments among adults. The KFF survey also showed that about half of those who tried injecting these weight loss drugs are still taking them. This new public opinion survey was conducted at the end of April and sampled nearly 1,500 adults through online and telephone surveys in English and Spanish.

Obesity and diabetes in the United States have been steadily increasing over the decades, and drugs such as Mounjaro and Zepbound from the American pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly and Ozempic and Wegovy from Denmark's Novo Nordisk are deeply penetrating the American population.

According to research data from Bloomberg Intelligence, the market size of these weight loss drugs is expected to reach at least $80 billion by 2030. Goldman Sachs is even more optimistic in its forecast report, showing that the annual sales of the global anti-obesity drug market could increase to around $100 billion by 2030, while the annual sales in early 2023 were only $6 billion. The World Obesity Federation (WOF) predicts that by 2035, more than 4 billion people (more than half of the world's population) may suffer from obesity to varying degrees.