Last Friday (June 21), the US stock market welcomed the 'triple witching day', with nvidia falling for two consecutive days, resulting in a market capitalization decrease of over 220 billion US dollars.

Magical “Triple Witching Day”, NVIDIA fell for two consecutive days.

“Triple Witching Day” refers to the day when ETFs, stocks, and index options expire at the same time once a quarter, which occurs on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December each year. During this period, due to the tendency of investors to liquidate quickly, trading volume may increase sharply, and the prices of US stocks and derivatives may also experience significant fluctuations.

Last Friday (June 21st), the three major US stock indexes closed up and down, the Dow rose 0.04% to 39,150.33 points, recording a fourth consecutive day of gains; the S&P 500 index fell 0.16% to 5,464.62 points, and the Nasdaq fell 0.18% to 17,689.36 points. Last week, the Dow rose 1.45%, the S&P 500 index rose 0.61%, and the Nasdaq was flat. NVIDIA fell 3.22% and fell back 6.7% in the past two trading days, evaporating market cap of $222 billion.

According to Goldman Sachs analysts, the size of US stock options expiring on Triple Witching Day on Friday will be the largest ever, with a notional value of more than $5.1 trillion, surpassing the size in December last year.

Bull and bear disagreements on Wall Street intensified.

Since this year, the market's concern about whether the US stock market can continue to rise in the coming months has increased due to the dependence on technology stocks for success or failure. There are obvious differences among Wall Street analysts, reflecting the growing uncertainty about whether the bull market can continue.

JPMorgan strategist Kolanovic stated that the outlook for the US stock market is bleak due to the reduced possibility of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve and numerous risks. He wrote in the report that although the recent continuous rise in the US stock market, this only shows that the market has ignored many risks. According to his prediction, the US stock market is expected to plummet by 22% in the next six months.

Goldman Sachs and Citigroup are still optimistic about the US stock market.

This week, Citigroup raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index from 5,100 points to 5,600 points. The bank's chief strategist Klauber believes that the continuous upward revision of profits and the expansion of profit growth into non-technology stocks have driven the target price increase. At the same time, Citigroup raised its EPS forecast for the S&P from $245 to $250.

Goldman Sachs announced last week that it raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index from 5,200 points to 5,600 points. It is worth noting that while Goldman Sachs raised its target, it also warned that if economic data deteriorates, there is a higher possibility of a recession, and the S&P 500 index may fall to 4,800 points at the end of the year, a 12% decline from the current level. On the other hand, the key risk facing today's market leaders is that the optimistic mood about artificial intelligence will bring higher thresholds.

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at this month's policy meeting, and the interest rate dot plot showed that interest rates are expected to be cut once in 2024. However, multiple price indices released last week showed that the anti-inflation trend is expected to return. According to data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch Tool, there is a trend of returning to two rate cuts for this year.

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