This week's important schedule overview
The market is concerned about the most favored inflation index of the Federal Reserve.
After the unexpected decline in US May CPI and PPI data, market participants will be closely watching the US May PCE data released at 20:30 on June 28th Beijing time, to find signs of further easing of inflation, thus providing more flexibility for the Fed's interest rate cut path. As the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, both overall and core PCE data in the United States have fallen sharply from their 2022 peak, but still higher than the target level of 2%. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell pointed out at the recent meeting that policy-makers need to have 'greater confidence' in the decline in inflation before they relax their policies.
US May overall PCE YoY growth rate will drop from 2.7% to 2.6%, while MoM growth rate will drop from 0.3% to 0%; core PCE YoY growth rate is expected to drop from 2.8% to 2.6%, while MoM growth rate will drop from 0.2% to 0.1%.
If the data confirms that inflation is still cooling, this could further solidify the market's expectation of two 25 basis point rate cuts by the Fed this year and may increase the likelihood of a first cut in September, which would be unfavorable for the US dollar. On the other hand, above-expectation data could push US government bond yields higher and force gold lower. Although analysts have seen little surprise in US PCE data forecasts in recent months, their low forecasts make upside surprises possible.
Several Federal Reserve officials continue to speak out.
After the release of the dot plot forecasting only one rate cut in 2024, several Federal Reserve officials, including Bowman, Barkin, Daly, and Lisa Cook, will speak out. Market expects them to continue to 'replay the old tune' and align with Powell's statement at the press conference that May CPI data is 'good data,' but more data is needed to show that inflation is returning to the 2% target, and there is no possibility of a rate cut in September, continue to rely on data, etc. If officials suggest they will wait until the end of the year to cut interest rates and look for evidence of slowing inflation for several months before cutting rates, the US dollar may strengthen further.
China's official PMI for June.
China's June PMI will be released on June 30th (Sunday) Beijing time. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on May 31st showed that China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) in May fell 0.9 percentage points from the previous month to 49.5%, entering the contraction range again after two months. Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the National Bureau of Statistics Service Survey Center, said that affected by the higher base formed by the rapid growth of the manufacturing industry in the previous period and the insufficient effective demand, the business climate of the manufacturing industry has fallen back slightly, and the overall view is that “China’s economic output continues to expand, and the production and operation activities of enterprises maintain a recovery and development trend”.
US presidential candidate debate and French National Assembly elections.
The current 81-year-old President Biden and former President Trump, who has just turned 78, will hold the first presidential candidate debate. The duel will start at 9 p.m. Eastern Time on June 27th (9 a.m. Beijing time on June 28th). In addition to the latest policy tendencies of the two, the core of this debate will be whether the physical condition of the two candidates can sustain 90 minutes of high-intensity discourse. Outside the US market, European investors will focus on the results of the first round of the French National Assembly elections, which are directly linked to the potential 'French sovereign debt crisis'. This week, the yield spread between French and German 10-year government bonds has widened to nearly 80 basis points.
Nvidia shareholders meeting.
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$The shareholders meeting will be held at 9 a.m. Pacific Time on Thursday, June 26 (midnight on June 27 Beijing time). Although most of the agenda items of the shareholders meeting will proceed as usual and there are few surprises, investors will pay close attention to the high-level executives' statements on the company's current situation and future prospects given Nvidia's recent stock price performance and CEO Huang Renxun's multiple shareholdings.
Micron Technology's financial report.
This round of earnings season is coming to an end, and the market is concerned about the latest financial reports of AI's popular stocks.$Micron Technology (MU.US)$Wall Street analysts predict that Micron Technology's EPS will reach $0.50 in its upcoming quarterly report, up 135% YoY. Expected revenue for the period will reach $6.7 billion, up 78.6% YoY.
Key earnings calendar for the week.
June 24, Monday
Keywords: Dallas Federal Reserve business activity index; summary of monetary policy meeting of the Bank of Japan.
On Monday, economic data will be released, including the Dallas Fed's business activity index and manufacturing employment index, among others.
In terms of financial events, the Bank of Japan releases the summary of its June monetary policy meeting.
Tuesday, June 25th
Keywords: US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index; Speeches by FOMC Voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly; Speech by Fed Director Bowman.
On Tuesday, in terms of economic data, the Conference Board will release the Consumer Confidence Index for June, which is a leading indicator of consumer spending. The Redbook Business Retail Sales Index for the week ending June 17th will also be released.
On the same day, real estate indices including the April S&P/CS 20-City Non-Seasonally Adjusted Home Price Index and the April FHFA House Price Index Month-to-Month Index will be released.
In addition, Hong Kong's May trade account will also be released.
In terms of economic events, FOMC Voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly will speak on monetary policy and the economy in 2024, while Fed Director Bowman will speak on monetary policy and banking capital reform.
Wednesday, June 26th
Keywords: API and EIA crude oil data; Speech by Fed Director Bowman; Speech by Fed Director Lael Brainard.
On Wednesday, in terms of economic data, EIA and API crude oil data will be released. Investors should pay close attention to the impact of this data on commodities and petroleum shares.
In addition, the US May new home sales annualized total will also be released.
In terms of economic events, Nvidia shareholders' meeting will be held at 9am Pacific Time on Thursday, June 26th (12am Beijing Time on June 27th).
Fed Director Bowman will give a keynote speech at the Midwest Network Seminar, sponsored by the St. Louis, Chicago and Kansas City Federal Reserve Banks, on monetary policy and banking capital reform. Fed Director Lael Brainard will speak at the New York Economics Club.
In terms of heavyweight financial reports, Micron Technology will release its financial report after the US market closes on June 26th.
Thursday, June 27th
Keywords: Final Q1 Actual GDP Annualized Quarterly Rate, Final Q1 Core PCE Price Index Annualized Quarterly Rate, Initial Jobless Claims; Fed to release the results of its annual bank stress tests.
On Thursday, in terms of economic data, important data including the final Q1 Actual GDP Annualized Quarterly Rate and the final Q1 Core PCE Price Index Annualized Quarterly rate will be released today. Investors should still pay attention to the initial claims data for the week ending June 22nd.
In addition, investors should pay attention to China's May year-on-year industrial enterprise profit of scale above.
In terms of economic events, the Fed will release the results of its annual bank stress tests.
As for the heavyweight new stocks, Hong Kong stock$ZHONGGAN COMM (02545.HK)$Subscription has ended and is expected to be listed on July 3.
Friday, June 28th
Keywords: US May core PCE price index, June University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, Japan May unemployment rate; US presidential candidate's first television debate.
On Friday, economic data, the US Department of Commerce will release May core PCE data before the market opens; the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index for June will be released on the same day.
Given the previous April core PCE year-on-year growth rate fell to the lowest level since April 2021, and personal consumption unexpectedly decreased, if May data continues this inflation cooling trend, it will provide a strong endorsement of confidence for the Fed to cut interest rates.
In addition, US one-year inflation expectations and Japan's May unemployment rate data will also be released.
In terms of economic events, on Friday, June 28 at 9pm Eastern Time (9am Saturday in Beijing), the current 81-year-old President of the United States, Biden, and the former 78-year-old President Trump will hold their first presidential candidate debate.
In addition, FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin will give a speech in 2024.
As for the heavyweight new stocks, Hong Kong stock$METASURFACE (08637.HK)$will announce the results of the allotment;$TIANJUDIHE (02479.HK)$, $DIDA INC (02559.HK)$, $LAOPU GOLD (06181.HK)$will officially be listed.
Sunday, June 30th
Keywords: June official manufacturing PMI, French National Assembly elections.
On Sunday, in terms of economic data, China will release the official manufacturing PMI for June.
In terms of economic events, the first round of elections for the French National Assembly will be held.
Wishing Mooers a successful week of investment!
Edited by Jeffrey