Emerging markets outlook: The 25-day moving average line of the Growth 250 index has finally turned upwards.

Fisco Japan · Jun 22 13:23

■時価総額や売買代金の大きい銘柄が上昇

今週の新興市場はほぼ横ばい。同時期の騰落率は、日経平均が－0.56％だったのに対して、グロース市場指数は＋0.06％、グロース市場250指数は-0.12％となった。今週のグロース市場はコンスタントに1日あたり1500億円前後の売買代金をこなしており、2月から5月の下落局面時より商いは増加。JPX総研が公表したTOPIXの新たな改革案を巡り、ジーエヌアイグループ＜2160＞、トライアルHD＜141A＞、インテグラル＜5842＞、カバー＜5253＞など時価総額や売買代金の大きい銘柄に組み入れ期待が入り上昇したことなどが、グロース市場指数、グロース市場250指数を支える格好となった。プライム市場同様、方向感のつかみにくい地合いとなったが、週を通じて25日移動平均線より上での推移となった。

時価総額上位銘柄では、ウェルスナビ＜7342＞が反発継続となったほか、フリー＜4478＞、シーユーシー＜9158＞がようやく下げ止まった。一方、関心が高まっていたサンバイオ＜4592＞は、厚労省の専門部会が「アクーゴ」を条件および期限付きで承認したものの、一部報道で「当面は出荷できない」と伝わったことから急落。2日連続ストップ安となった。

今週の新規株式公開（IPO）は合計6社。18日にグロース市場に上場したインテグループ＜192A＞の初値は公開価格を50.0％上回る5940円。19日にグロース市場に上場したライスカレー＜195A＞の初値は公開価格を9.9％上回る1560円。20日にグロース市場に上場したPostPrime＜198A＞の初値は公開価格と同じ450円、WOLVES HAND＜194A＞の初値は公開価格を13.6％上回る875円だった一方、スタンダード市場に上場したタウンズ＜197A＞の初値は公開価格を6.5％下回る430円となった。また、21日にグロース市場に上場したMFS＜196A＞の初値は公開価格を8.0％下回る368円となった。

■25日移動平均線より上の水準での値固め、IPOは2社

来週の新興市場は、25日移動平均線より上の水準での値固めを想定する。売買代金が増加しているなか、25日移動平均線も上向きに転じたことから反発基調が強まる可能性もある。

カバーやインテグラルなど時価総額が大きい銘柄の売買が盛り上がっていることは、投資家のマインドがようやく好転してきたと捉えることもできよう。今後、出遅れ銘柄への物色が強まれば、上場後、さえない推移が続いているアストロスケールHD＜186A＞が反転する可能性もある。アストロスケールHDに関心が向かえば、ispace＜9348＞、QPS研究所＜5595＞など宇宙関連銘柄の刺激材料となり、グロース市場全体がより盛り上がるだろう。今年に入りQPS研究所はグロース市場の中心的存在だったため、戻り待ちの売りに押される可能性はあるが、3月及び4月の高値時点の売買代金はさほど膨らんでいないので、需給面はそこまで悪くないと考える。

なお、来週は27日にクラウドコンサルティングサービスなどを手掛ける豆蔵デジタルHD＜202A＞、28日に注文住宅事業を手掛けるロゴスHD＜205A＞がそれぞれグロース市場に上場する。今週のIPOは6社と多かったこともあり、初値が公募価格を割り込む銘柄が出るなど投資家の物色意欲は弱かった。来週は2社に絞られることから、堅調な初値形成、そして、初値形成後のしっかりとした価格推移に期待したい。

Stocks with large market capitalization and trading volume are rising. In terms of product structure, the operating income for 10-30 billion yuan products is 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively, with an overall sales volume of 18,000 kiloliters in 2023, a year-on-year increase of +28.10%, showing significant growth.

This week's emerging markets remained almost flat. During the same period, while the Nikkei average fell by -0.56%, the Growth Market Index rose by +0.06% and the Growth Market 250 Index fell by -0.12%. The Growth Market has been consistently handling trading volume of around 150 billion yen per day this week, and trading volume has increased compared to the market downturn from February to May. Large-cap stocks with high market capitalization and trading volume such as GNIE Group <2160>, Trial HD <141A>, Integral <5842>, Cover <5253> have been integrated into the JPX research Institute's new reform proposals for TOPIX, driving up the Growth Market Index and the Growth Market 250 Index. The direction of the market remains elusive, like the Prime Market, but it has been moving above the 25-day moving average line throughout the week.

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This week's initial public offerings (IPOs) were six companies in total. On the 18th, the first price of InteGroup <192A>, which was listed on the Growth Market, was 5,940 yen, up 50.0% from the offering price. On the 19th, the first price of Rice Curry <195A> listed on the Growth Market was 1,560 yen, up 9.9% from the offering price. On the 20th, the first price of PostPrime <198A> listed on the Growth Market was the same as the offering price at 450 yen, and the first price of WOLVES HAND <194A> was 875 yen, up 13.6% from the offering price. The first price of Towns <197A>, which was listed on the Standard Market, was 430 yen, down 6.5% from the offering price. Additionally, the first price of MFS <196A>, which was listed on the Growth Market on the 21st, was 368 yen, down 8.0% from the offering price.

Value consolidation at levels above the 25-day moving average line, two IPOs.

Next week's emerging markets are expected to consolidate at levels above the 25-day moving average line. With increased trading volume and the 25-day moving average line now moving upward, there is also a possibility of a strong rebound.

The high trading of large-cap and high market capitalization stocks such as Cover, Integral is possible evidence that investor sentiment has finally started to improve. In the future, there is a possibility that the poorly performing Astriscale Ltd <186A>, which has remained stagnant since its listing, may reverse course as investors begin search for other undervalued stocks. If interest turns to Astriscale, it could become a stimulus for space-related stocks like ispace <9348> and QPS Research <5595>, leading to a more thriving growth market. This year, QPS Research has been a central presence in the growth market, so there is a possibility that it will encounter selling pressure. However, as trading volume in March and April did not expand much, demand and supply appear to be in balance.

Next week, on the 27th, digital beanstalk hd <202A>, which handles cloud consulting services, and on the 28th, logos hd <205A>, which handles ordered residences, will be listed on the Growth Market. As there were six IPOs this week, with some stocks listing below their offering price, investors' appetite is weak. With only two companies listed next week, we hope for a strong initial pricing and a stable price movement afterward.

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新興市場見通し：グロース250指数の25日移動平均線がようやく上向きに転じる

Emerging markets outlook: The 25-day moving average line of the Growth 250 index has finally turned upwards.

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