According to UBS, there are two most likely outcomes for the US presidential election this year: Joe Biden continues to be a "lame duck" president or Trump wins in a landslide.
In response to these two starkly different scenarios and potential policy changes, UBS has prepared two lists for investors' occasional needs.
As the two oldest American candidates aged 159 years in total hold the historically oldest presidential debate next week, Wall Street analysts are also pondering a question: which stocks may benefit from the potential election results given the candidates' almost clear-cut policies?
In its latest election observation report, UBS introduces the two most likely scenarios for the US election this year: first, Biden wins re-election but remains in a "lame duck" state; The other is Trump's landslide victory, not only regaining the White House big seat.$Kyowa (6570.JP)$Party also successfully controlled both houses of Congress.
Although initial polls showed that Trump had a slightly higher chance of winning, analysts also said that Biden has recently recovered some of the disadvantages.
In order to produce this list, UBS analysts analyze the policies during the tenure of the past two US presidents and how they affect specific industries and companies. Analysts also warn that policy is only one of the factors affecting the trend of stocks, and each stock will still have other unique risks that may affect future performance.
It needs to be explained in advance that the logic of these two lists is completely based on policy considerations, so stocks like $Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$are not included.
Concept stocks based on Biden's re-election
According to their research, UBS believes that the following stocks may benefit from Biden's re-election.
Electrical components and grid companies based on electrification policy:$Eaton (ETN.US)$, $Quanta Services (PWR.US)$
Clean hydrogen production facility companies:$Air Products & Chemicals (APD.US)$
Energy efficiency product manufacturers:$Johnson Controls (JCI.US)$, $Ingersoll Rand (IR.US)$
Waste management companies benefiting from renewable infrastructure and natural gas investment projects:$Republic Services (RSG.US)$, $Waste Management (WM.US)$
Producers of solar energy, electric vehicles, and charging infrastructure:$Tesla (TSLA.US)$, $First Solar (FSLR.US)$, $NextEra Energy (NEE.US)$, $Sunrun (RUN.US)$
Trump concept stocks won big:
Banks and consumer finance companies benefiting from relaxed Wall Street capital flow rules:$JPMorgan (JPM.US)$, $Bank of America (BAC.US)$, $Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.US)$, $KeyCorp (KEY.US)$, $Synchrony Financial (SYF.US)$, $Discover Financial Services (DFS.US)$
Financial institutions benefiting from the reduction in merger review activities:$Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$, $Morgan Stanley (MS.US)$, $Evercore (EVR.US)$, $Lazard (LAZ.US)$
Natural gas producers benefiting from relaxed regulation:$Cheniere Energy (LNG.US)$, $Exxon Mobil (XOM.US)$, $ConocoPhillips (COP.US)$
Insurance companies providing broader coverage:$UnitedHealth (UNH.US)$, $Humana (HUM.US)$
Pharmaceutical companies facing risks of "volume-based procurement pressure":$Eli Lilly and Co (LLY.US)$, $Merck & Co (MRK.US)$
Semiconductor manufacturers, auto manufacturers, and steel manufacturers benefiting from Trump's trade protection policy:$Intel (INTC.US)$, $Texas Instruments (TXN.US)$, $Applied Materials (AMAT.US)$, $KLA Corp (KLAC.US)$, $Ford Motor (F.US)$, $General Motors (GM.US)$, $Nucor (NUE.US)$, $Steel Dynamics (STLD.US)$