The simplest way to benefit from a rising market is to buy an index fund. While individual stocks can be big winners, plenty more fail to generate satisfactory returns. That downside risk was realized by Gilead Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:GILD) shareholders over the last year, as the share price declined 12%. That falls noticeably short of the market return of around 25%. On the other hand, the stock is actually up 2.0% over three years. On the other hand the share price has bounced 7.8% over the last week.
The recent uptick of 7.8% could be a positive sign of things to come, so let's take a look at historical fundamentals.
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Unhappily, Gilead Sciences had to report a 91% decline in EPS over the last year. This fall in the EPS is significantly worse than the 12% the share price fall. So the market may not be too worried about the EPS figure, at the moment -- or it may have expected earnings to drop faster. With a P/E ratio of 175.94, it's fair to say the market sees an EPS rebound on the cards.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
Dive deeper into Gilead Sciences' key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Gilead Sciences's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Gilead Sciences' TSR for the last 1 year was -8.6%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
Investors in Gilead Sciences had a tough year, with a total loss of 8.6% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 25%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 5%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Gilead Sciences you should know about.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com