Source: Sina US Stocks On the evening of the 20th Beijing time, the US stocks opened mixed on Thursday, and then the three major indexes rose slightly. Nvidia hit another new high and consolidated its position as the largest market cap company in the US stock market. Initial jobless claims in the United States last week were higher than expected, and real estate and manufacturing indexes were below expectations. Until the manuscript was submitted, the S&P 500 index rose 0.29% to break through 5500 points, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.37%, and the Dow Jones Index rose 0.13%. The US stock market was closed on Wednesday due to the June holiday (Juneteenth). On Tuesday, the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq both set new historical highs. The US stock market is expected to record gains this week. The S&P 500 index set its 31st new high this year on Tuesday. Due to the continued AI craze and the resilience of economic growth, it is expected to continue to support corporate profits, especially in the technology sector. Nvidia's stock price hit another new high. The AI darling and chip maker surpassed Microsoft last Tuesday and became the world's most valuable company. Against the background of the continued AI craze boosting the stock market, Nvidia's stock price has risen 174% from 2024 to date. As Nvidia consolidates its position as a thriving market leader in the AI theme market, its market value has surpassed that of Apple in early June. "Nvidia is still the most important stock in the world," said Chris Weston, head of Pepperstone research, in a report. However, Weston warned that the overall performance of the index market was poor, and the market participation was mediocre, suggesting that the rise was built on an unstable foundation. "The fact remains that the market is still very bullish on AI-related stocks and large tech stocks, and given the lack of clear immediate risks, the path of least resistance is for stock indices to rise." While consumer spending has shown signs of slowing and hints at potential economic weakness, investors continue to flock to the AI giant. The rise of Nvidia has also boosted its peers. Chip maker Broadcom has surged more than 60% from 2024 to date. Scott Chronert, Citigroup's US stock strategy director, wrote in a report on Tuesday: "We still believe that Wall Street (the S&P 500) is diverging from the corporate sector (the foundation of the US economy), is this strange? There is no doubt that generative AI is currently infiltrating the US stock market environment as a sustained driver of growth." Nevertheless, some commentators have noted that while this doldrums has not yet fully affected the US stock market, which repeatedly sets new highs, the rise lacks breadth beyond the largest tech companies, and this situation may continue to deteriorate. Thomas Fitzpatrick, managing director of R.J. O'Brien and Associates, said, "There's a feeling of AI theme that's very similar to the 2000-2001 US stock style, but as we know, markets stay irrational longer than you stay solvent. But for now, it's hard to stop the speeding train." Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, said that due to three major unfavorable factors that will suppress stock prices, the US stock market will see a correction. This Wall Street veteran pointed out that so far this year, the stock market has performed strongly, with the S&P 500 index up 15% from 2024. However, he predicted that the benchmark index would fall 5% due to unfavorable interest rates, inflation, and stock valuations. The inflation rate is declining but still above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, leading Fed officials to expect only one interest rate cut by year-end. As for Thursday's economic data, the initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States were almost unchanged last week, and the data for the previous week rose sharply. These data tend to fluctuate before and after holidays and school vacations. Data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed that as of June 15, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits decreased by 5,000 to 238,000. The number of continued claims for unemployment benefits as of June 8 rose to 1.82 million. In the past year, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits has remained low as the labor market has shown resilience in the face of high prices and high interest rates. The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims rose to 232,750, the highest level since September last year.

The US stock market opened lower on the evening of the 21st Beijing time. All three major US stock indexes are expected to record gains this week. Today is the so-called "Triple Witching Day", and it is expected that the trading volume and price volatility of stocks will increase. As of press time,$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$up 0.08%,$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$down 0.48%,$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$down 0.31%.

All three major US indexes are expected to record gains this week. As of Thursday's close, the S&P 500 index rose by about 0.8%, and the Nasdaq index rose by 0.2%. The Dow Jones index performed well and has risen by 1.4% so far this week.

"Stifel" analyst Barry Bannister said that if past market madness is any guide, the S&P 500 index may rise by nearly 10% this year. But like the previous "bubble", this one will burst too. He said that as investors continue to flock to it, the S&P 500 is expected to rise to the major level of 6,000 by the end of 2024. However, he expects the index to fall back to the level at the beginning o

f this year, which is about 4,800 points, a slight drop of about one-fifth, by the middle of 2026.

Friday (June 21, 2024) is the so-called "Triple Witching Day", and according to options platform SpotGamma's estimates, the US stock market will have about $5.5 trillion in index options, stock options, and ETF options expiring today.

As contracts expire and significant unwinding occurs, stock market trading volume usually expands and leads to significant market volatility, which may provide some short-term trading opportunities for traders thirsty for volatility.

The option expiration date for this quarter coincides with the implied volatility of S&P 500 options remaining near their lowest levels since before the epidemic.

In addition, the option expiration date coincides with the index's recalibration, and S&P Dow Jones Indexes is set to recalibrate individual stock weights, as will ETFs that track the index.

US stocks closed mixed on Thursday, with the Dow up nearly 300 points and the Nasdaq and S&P indices down. During the session, the S&P 500 index briefly climbed above 5,500 points for the first time and rose as high as 5,505.53 points. The Nasdaq also hit an intraday all-time high of 17,936.79.

Nvidia fell 3.5% on Thursday, dragging down the IT sector by 1.6%. Nevertheless, the chip manufacturer has risen more than 160% so far this year and briefly surpassed Microsoft on Tuesday as the most valuable US listed company.

Jamie Cox, managing partner of Harris Financial Group, said that while there are signs of excessive expansion in the market, it is unclear whether the market has reached the upper limit of the rise driven by artificial intelligence fever, when this rising trend "plummets like a meteor". He said: "The good news is that reality does not mean market collapse or the appearance of this larg

e-scale decline. It is more like a rebalancing of the sector, because the valuations of these companies are far from the average stock valuation. You may see an expansion of some leading stocks, which has been talked about for a long time."

Key sectors & stocks

Most semiconductor stocks fell back, with Micron Technology down over 5%, ARM down nearly 5%, NVIDIA down over 4%, and Broadcom down nearly 3%.

Most China concept stocks fell, with Xikr down more than 4%, Netease down more than 2%, and JD.com and Pingduoduo down nearly 2%.

An insider said that Nvidia's competitor, AI chip start-up Cerebras Systems, has secretly submitted IPO documents to the US securities regulator and applied to go public on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange. The source also said that the IPO could take place later this year.

In addition, on the day of Friday, Nvidia has become the stock with the largest short-selling volume and the largest change in short-selling transaction volume in the US stock market, with an increase of 27.3869 million shares in short-selling transaction volume, and the total short-selling transaction volume is 53.4211 million shares, an increase of 105.19% compared with the previous trading day, with a short-selling transaction ratio of 10.31%.

On June 21st, AMD China announced that the fifth generation of AMD EPYC processors are expected to be launched in the second half of 2024. Based on the "Zen 5" core, the fifth-generation AMD EPYC processor supports up to 192 cores and 384 threads, with 13 small chips made using 3nm and 6nm process technology.

According to Guo Mingchi, an analyst at TF International Securities, many users who purchased the Apple Vision Pro headset have only used it a few times and then abandoned it. If this situation is widespread among Vision Pro headset users, simply launching lower-spec products by Apple will be of no avail.

$Bilibili (BILI.US)$Despite a downward trend, there was a more than 3% rise with a year-on-year growth of 146% in GMV on June 18th and strong performance by new games.

Editor/Lambor