Global macro

• Before the market opens on Friday, the three major US stock index futures fell in unison.

• Fed officials are once again "hawkish": More data is needed for interest rate cuts.

As a voting member of the Fed this year, Richmond Fed President Barkin said he needed further clarity on the inflation path before cutting interest rates. On the same day, the representative of the dovish character of the Fed, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, said that if inflation continues to cool as it did last month, policymakers will have the ability to cut interest rates.

• The biggest "witching day" in history coincides with index adjustments, and the market may experience short-term fluctuations.

The US stock market will welcome the "witching day" on Friday, when the record-sized options will expire, which may bring short-term volatility to the market. According to the estimation of the option platform SpotGamma, about $5.5 trillion of options will expire on this "witching day". At the same time as the arrival of the witching day, the implied volatility of the S&P 500 index options is close to the lowest level before the new crown epidemic, and the benchmark index has benefited from the soaring of AI-related stocks. The options expire at the time of the index rebalancing, when the component stock weights of the S&P Dow Jones index will be adjusted, and the ETFs tracking its index will also adjust their holdings.

• Is the Bitcoin downturn sounding the alarm? A well-known investment bank: US stocks are about to face a sell-off.

Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist at US investment bank Stifel, pointed out in a recent report that Bitcoin has fallen 10% since June 7, which has sent a warning signal to the entire stock market. He emphasized that since 2020, there has been a strong correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 index, because this cryptocurrency is more like a speculative risk asset, not "digital gold".

• All in ai! Masayoshi Son declares: we will create super artificial intelligence that is 10,000 times more powerful than humans.

On Thursday, Sun Zhengyi declared that he was ready to bet on artificial intelligence, no matter whether he wins or loses. On Friday, Sun Zhengyi went further and boasted that everything Softbank has done before was just a warm-up to realize the dream of AI, and his goal is to create "super artificial intelligence". He predicted that super artificial intelligence may appear in 10 years, and its ability will be 10,000 times that of humans.

• Biden's team announced that they raised $85 million in campaign funds in May, losing to Trump for two consecutive months.

Trump's "fundraising operation" has clearly reached unprecedented heights after his guilty charge. After raising $76 million in April, his total fundraising in May reached a surprising $141 million. This reality is undoubtedly a headache for Biden. Although he saw a surprising increase in both April and May, he raised $51 million and $85 million respectively, but being lower than Trump's fundraising total for the second consecutive month is enough to make his campaign team uneasy.

Hot news

• Pre-market of Growth Tech stocks falls across the board.

• Nvidia fell, Bank of America urges investors not to flee and to buy on the dip!

Although$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$Despite the sharp retreat overnight, Bank of America believes that the stock still represents an attractive investment opportunity-any further declines in NVIDIA's stock price should be viewed as an opportunity to buy more shares. Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya said, "NVIDIA stock has risen 50% in the second quarter alone, which may make it vulnerable to short-term profit-taking, but we believe that any fluctuations could be short-lived." As of the time of publication, NVIDIA pre-market decline exceeded 2%.

• Bearish market mode appears in the daily K chart: betting on put options of Nvidia surges!

According to FactSet data, put option trading related to ($NVDA) surged overnight as the record-setting 'witching day' option expiry approached. Shares of the chip designer fluctuated by more than 6% from highs to lows overnight, with the largest increase in trading volume in put options with a strike price of $135 and $130, and the proportion of put options trading for NVIDIA shares soared to 0.70 due to the surge in activity.$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$Sarepta soared more than 39% before the market, and its subsidiary DMD gene therapy Elevidys was approved to expand its indications. The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved Elevidys, a gene therapy co-developed with Roche, to include Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) patients who are at least 4 years old.

• Sarepta pre-soars more than 39%, its DMD gene therapy Elevidys has been approved for expanded indications.

Approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA).$Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT.US)$The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved the expansion of Elevidys, a gene therapy jointly developed by Sarepta and Roche, to include Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) patients aged at least 4 years old. As of the time of publication, Sarepta skyrocketed more than 39% before the market opened.

• Amazon is reportedly launching an AI version of Alexa for a monthly fee of $5 to $10.

Insiders reveal that$Amazon (AMZN.US)$Amazon is planning a major overhaul of its Alexa voice assistant, which has been in use since 2014. It will incorporate AI chatbots and offer two levels of service that will charge $5 to $10 per month. This will be the first major reform of Alexa since its launch, and the new voice assistant will be called "Remarkable Alexa".

Not to be outdone, after NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun announced the latest AI chip iteration schedule on the evening of June 2nd, AMD CEO Su Zifeng also threw out an iteration roadmap during her speech on the morning of June 3rd before the COMPUTEX opened. The company will launch the MI325 X and Ryzen AI300 this year, the MI350 series in 2025, and the MI400 series in 2026.

• Most popular Chinese concept stocks fell before the market.

• Goldman Sachs reviews 618: Taobao, JD prices approach PDD, net GMV expected to grow in the middle and high single digits.

Goldman Sachs analysts Ronald Keung and others stated that during the one-month 618 shopping festival, Taobao,$JD.com (JD.US)$, $PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$The three major e-commerce platforms offer similar level of discounts, with similar prices for most products on different platforms, and they all focus more on the consumer experience. Goldman Sachs predicts that the total GMV (gross merchandise value) of the industry during the 618 event this year is expected to achieve low double-digit growth year-on-year. However, affected by returns and order cancellations, the net GMV (the actual transaction amount finally achieved) is expected to increase only by a high single-digit percentage.

• Morgan Stanley calculates Temu's global expansion potential: GMV will reach 130 billion US dollars by 2030.

In the latest research report, Morgan Stanley analysts Eddy Wang et al. pointed out that$PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$the global expansion strategy of the overseas version of Temu is at a critical stage, and its market potential and profit prospects are dazzling. The platform is expected to achieve profitability as early as 2025, and the growth potential of GMV is enormous. It is expected to reach 130 billion US dollars by 2030.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

21:45 US June PMI Manufacturing Initial / US June PMI Services Initial

22:00 US May Conference Board Leading Index month-on-month / US May Existing Home Sales Annualized Total

22:30 US EIA Natural Gas Inventory for the Week

Editor/tolk