Next week's important futures data and events at a glance

1. At 2:00 on June 25, 2024 FOMC voting committee and San Francisco Federal Reserve Chairman Daly delivered a speech on monetary policy and the economy. At 0:00 on June 26, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook delivered a speech at the New York Economic Club. At 2:10 on the same day, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman delivered a keynote speech at the Midwest webinar hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of St. Louis, Chicago, and Kansas City. Follow comments from Fed officials on monetary policy to assess the number of times the Fed is expected to cut interest rates this year.

2. June 25 at 04:00 USDA Crop Growth Report. CBOT cereal futures have reached new lows as weather forecasts indicate heavy rain in the Midwest region of the US, easing concerns that the heatwave will affect the growth of soybean crops in the region. The soybean planting schedule has now reached 93%. July-August is the growing season for soybeans, so keep an eye on the growth of soybeans. Additionally, NOAA's July weather forecast shows that the July weather will be hotter and drier.

3. TBD on June 25, ITS, AmSpec and SGS Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1-25. To be determined on June 26, MPOA will release Malaysia's palm oil production data for June 1-20, and SPPOMA will release Malaysia's palm oil production data for June 1-25. ITS and AMSpec data both showed that horse palm oil declined from June 1-20 compared to the previous month, suggesting that the export side is weak. Currently, Malaysian palm oil is in a seasonal increase cycle, and strong exports are needed to relieve inventory pressure. We need to focus on next week's palm oil exports to verify the demand-side situation.

4. At 4:30 on June 27, the Federal Reserve will release the results of its annual bank stress test on June 27, covering 32 banks with assets of $100 billion or more. The Federal Reserve said in a statement on June 6 that hypothetical scenarios include a severe global recession and pressure on commercial and residential real estate markets. The Federal Reserve will also include the “overall results” of the first exploratory analysis, but this part will not affect banks' capital requirements.

5. At 20:30 on June 27, the US announced the final GDP value for the first quarter of 2024. Previously, the revised quarterly annualized rate of real GDP in the first quarter of the US recorded 1.3%. As scheduled, it was not only lower than the previous estimate of 1.6%, but also significantly lower than the 3.4% growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2023.

6. At 20:30 on June 27, Statistics Canada announced the area estimates for major field crops. Previously, the area planted for wheat, rapeseed and soybeans in Canada was 27.45 million acres, 21.394 million acres, and 5.582 million acres, respectively.

7. To be determined on June 27, a new round of price adjustment window for domestic refined oil products will open.

8. On June 28, the first debate between Biden and Trump was held on the same day for 90 minutes. This debate will be the first time in four years that Biden and Trump “meet face to face” on the same occasion.

9. At 20:30 on June 28, the annual rate of the US core PCE price index and the monthly rate of the core PCE price index for May. According to TD Securities analysts, the inflation rate has declined from a decades-long high and is expected to continue to decline in the next few years. Core PCE inflation (the Fed's preferred measure of inflation) is not expected to reach the 2% inflation target set by the FOMC until the end of 2025.

10. At 00:00 on June 29, USDA released 2024 planting area data and quarterly inventory reports. According to agency analysts, at the end of June, the US Department of Agriculture will release a report on the area under soybean cultivation. At this stage, the price comparison between soybeans and corn is basically at the highest level in the same period in recent years, and the benefits of soybean cultivation are even better. From a price comparison perspective, the area under cultivation of green beans may be further increased, which will bring higher yield expectations, but the actual situation still needs attention.