According to the Zhixin Finance APP, on June 20th, Li Chuangjun, the Director of the New Energy and Renewable Energy Department of the National Energy Administration, stated at the press conference of the State Council Information Office that the competition in China's photovoltaic industry is indeed very fierce. In order to guide the healthy development of the industry, the industry association will cooperate with relevant departments to timely release industry scale, capacity utilization, and market demand information, reasonably guide the construction and release of upstream photovoltaic capacity to avoid duplicate construction of low-end capacity, and strive to create a good market environment.

The National Energy Administration pointed out that first, we must consolidate the domestic market for new photovoltaic installations. A stable domestic market is the "basic plate" and "ballast stone" for the sustained and healthy development of China's photovoltaic industry. The National Energy Administration will adhere to the development of both centralized and distributed systems, on the one hand, strengthening the construction of large wind and photovoltaic power stations focusing on deserts, Gobi and other wastelands; on the other hand, implementing the "thousand households bathed in light action" and vigorously developing distributed photovoltaic power generation. At the same time, the National Energy Administration will accelerate the construction of new energy infrastructure networks and improve the grid's ability to accept, configure, and regulate new energy generation, including photovoltaics.

The National Energy Administration also pointed out the need to continuously improve photovoltaic technology innovation capabilities. Together with relevant departments, they will continue to strengthen the construction of the photovoltaic industry standard system, strengthen the innovation of standards, and promote the healthy development of the industry.

From June 13th to 15th, the 17th (2024) International Solar Photovoltaic and Smart Energy (Shanghai) Conference and Expo (SNEC 2024) was held at the Shanghai National Convention and Exhibition Center. Nearly 3,500 well-known companies from nearly 100 countries and regions around the world gathered to showcase the latest achievements and cutting-edge technology in the photovoltaic new energy field.

At the SNEC Photovoltaic Exhibition, many photovoltaic companies showed off their muscles and achieved breakthroughs in many technologies. According to statistics, TOPCon, HJT, BC and other products all appeared in the component link, and high-power products emerged in ever-increasing numbers, with 700W+ products already commonplace and even 750W+ products making their debut.

For example, Jinko Solar Energy launched the TigerNeo2024 photovoltaic component product matrix, based on N-type TOPCon technology, and the component conversion efficiency reached 23.5%. The launch of Jinko Solar's Blue Whale SunTera5MWh large-scale energy storage system marks a further deepening of energy storage technology in the field of photovoltaics. Risen Energy's Fuxi component has a high power output of 767.38Wp and a conversion rate of 24.70%. This data not only breaks the world record but also represents a new height in photovoltaic component technology. Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy's latest release, an ABC technology-based "full screen" component, has a high output of 700W and an efficiency of over 25%, refreshing industry standards.

In recent years, the competition in the photovoltaic industry market has been relatively sufficient, the prices of the industry chain have continued to fall, and the entire industry has borne pressure, with many companies facing development bottlenecks. In the first quarter of this year, only Jinko Solar, Ates, and Trina Solar achieved profitability, while Longi Green Energy, TCL Zhonghuan, Tongwei Co., Ltd., JA Solar Technology, Risen Energy and Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy all suffered losses.

On May 17, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association held a forum on the high-quality development of the photovoltaic industry. The meeting pointed out that China will strengthen crackdowns on vicious price-cutting sales below cost, encourage industry mergers and acquisitions, and smooth out market exit mechanisms.

From the perspective of supply and demand, on the supply side, the expected silicon wafer production continued to be maintained at 52GW in June, a decrease of 12.8% from the previous month, mainly due to the reduction in production by integrated companies, and specialized companies' adjustments to production rates were relatively small. In addition, the recent Q2 report pressure has increased the proportion of shipments by companies with high inventory levels, and a consensus price has been reached through locking volume and bargaining.

On the demand side, the increase in battery turnover inventory has forced production cuts, but the overall magnitude is limited, and specialized battery companies will maintain a relatively high operating rate to maintain their market share. Overall, the market urgently expects industry policy regulation and has the confidence to stabilize health and promote good development.

Pacific Securities believes that the next six months to a year is a window period for the photovoltaic industry to confirm the bottom of the big cycle. In the short term, the continuous decline in the operating rates of many enterprises in various links, the acceleration of capacity clearance, and stability of the industry chain quotations; in the long term, acceleration of going abroad is the common choice of the industry chain.

Haitong Securities believes that after the price decline since Q2, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the volume and price prospects of the industry. The industry has begun to enter the clearing cycle, and the policy orientation indicates that the country has attached great importance to the problems in the industry's development, so the potential industry turning point opportunities need to be taken seriously in the second half of the year.

Related concept stocks:

GCL Tech (03800): The company mainly engages in manufacturing polycrystalline silicon and silicon wafers for photovoltaic companies, as well as developing and managing eco-friendly power plants. It is one of the top four giants in the domestic silica materials industry. GCL Tech continues to expand particle silicon production capacity, and is expected to reach 300,000/400,000/500,000 tons of silica materials production capacity from 2023 to 2025, respectively.

Flat Glass Group (06865): By the end of 2023, the company's total production capacity will be 20,600 tons/day, with a daily melting capacity of 9,600 tons/day for Anhui Phase IV and Nantong projects, which is expected to be operational this year. The company plans to invest in and build a photovoltaic glass kiln in Indonesia to meet the demand for photovoltaic glass in different countries and regions.

Xinte Energy (01799): The company's main business is the production of polysilicon and providing engineering and construction contract services for solar and wind power plants and systems, as well as the operation of solar and wind power plants. In early November 2023, Guosen Securities (Hong Kong) released a research report stating that the current silicon material prices may have reached the bottom area. Although it will take some time to reverse the supply and demand pattern, the Xinte Energy stock price has already responded sufficiently to the market's pessimistic expectations.

Xinyi Solar (00968): With the rapid decline in component prices in 2023, the company took the opportunity to increase the scale of photovoltaic power plants connected to the grid, with a total of over 1GW new connections throughout the year, a 22% increase, driving an 8% increase in power plant revenue. On February 28, the company signed a 790MW power plant transfer agreement with Xinyi Energy. The company's development and sales business model is rolling out smoothly. In addition, the company's 60,000-ton polysilicon project in Qujing, Yunnan is expected to start production in the first half of 2024 and contribute to output in the second half of the year.