Source: Zhitong Finance "Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%)." With the rebound of the stock market, the old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" seems to have been a bad advice once again. Last month, the S&P 500 index rose 4.8%, the best May performance since 2009. The NASDAQ 100 index rose nearly 6.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index rose 6.9%. Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities Trading Division said: "History doesn't really support this saying. Don't sell, leave the market (go on vacation), and enjoy the good times." The rising trend is still to be continued? If history is any guide, it may indicate that the rise of the stock market is not over yet. Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, Scott Rubner, Managing Director of the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Division and tactical expert, pointed out the following historical background for investors. Rubner stated that the S&P 500 index has risen 10.7% year-to-date, and since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%). "Since 1950, the median return of the last 7 months of each year (June 1 to December 31) is 5.4%. In the aforementioned 21 cases, the average performance of the last 7 months increased to 8.1%." Rubner added. Rubner also pointed out that the NASDAQ index has risen for 16 consecutive Julys, with an average return of about 4.64%.

Federal Reserve officials held interest rates steady at their meeting last week, and lowered their expectations for the number of interest rate cuts this year from three in March to one. Policymakers said they hope to see more evidence that inflation is moving towards the target of 2% before they have confidence to start cutting interest rates.

Barkin, the 2024 FOMC voter and Richmond Federal Reserve chairman, said Thursday that he needed a clearer path to inflation before cutting interest rates.

Barkin said: "My personal view is let's have more conviction before we act." He reiterated that he needed to see inflation sustainably and broadly move toward the Fed's 2% target before adjusting borrowing costs.

He said the current policy was well positioned and the Fed had the firepower it needed to suppress inflation.

When asked if the Fed would cut interest rates once and then maintain interest rates, Barkin said it depended on the economy. He believed that if the current situation remained unchanged, now may not be the best time to give guidance on subsequent policy adjustments.

He said, "Sometimes we want to give forward guidance, and we have done so. But I don't think now is the time. It's not the time to give forward guidance now."

Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Charles Evans said on Thursday that if inflation continues to cool like last month, the Fed will have the ability to cut interest rates.

Evans appreciated the release of the May consumer price index report, which showed that inflation had slowed for the second consecutive month after unexpectedly rebounding earlier this year.

Evans said:"If we get more inflation data like we just saw, data that's very strong, very heartening-like around 2% in the second half of last year-then my view is that we could cut rates."

Editor / jayden