Source: Zhixin Finance.
BlackRock stated in a post that in the short term, winners in the few AI related areas will bring investment returns, thus maintaining an overweight view on the technology and AI themes. Due to preference for risk, compared to fixed income assets, BlackRock prefers equity assets but also favors the income brought by short-term bonds.
BlackRock believes that central banks in developed markets are forced to keep interest rates at pre-pandemic levels to curb inflation. Under the new macro pattern, both inflation and interest rates are high, supply is restricted, leading to low growth, and this unprecedented macro environment may continue. In addition, various economies are also adapting to the current population aging, global supply chain restructuring, and low-carbon transformation that limit production and lead to an increase in capital investment.
As a technology that can permanently improve productivity and alleviate inflation pressure, artificial intelligence has received great attention in BlackRock's seminar. These benefits brought by AI are still possible, but they require more time. However, some fund managers at BlackRock believe that the increase in initial capital expenditure for AI may cause inflation. Since the explosion of ChatGPT last year, the capital expenditure generated by artificial intelligence data centers has increased significantly, and it will be even more so in the next few years. The surge in capital expenditures and the demand for resources may cause bottlenecks, which means that before AI brings long-term benefits to alleviate inflation, it may first lead to short-term inflation. The market and central banks in developed markets have not yet taken this complex situation into consideration.
Where will the market go in the second half of the year? BlackRock believes that winners in the AI field will drive investment returns in the next 6 to 12 months, so it continues to hold an overweight view on technology and AI-related opportunities. The rise of AI is supported by corporate profits and still has room for growth in the future. At present, there is no bubble in the AI field, with strong profitability of large technology companies, which is completely different from the situation of those companies that caused the Internet bubble.
The balance sheets of large technology companies are stable and profitable, which also supports BlackRock's preference for risk. Even in a high-interest-rate environment, the maturing debt of investment-grade companies will remain manageable in the next few years, and profits will continue to improve. Because of the preference for risk, BlackRock is more inclined to equity assets than fixed-income assets. However, at the same time, because interest rates will remain high for a longer period of time, short-term bonds are also preferred to obtain returns.
Editor / jayden