Core views:
The forward-looking layout has established a first-mover advantage, and the company's platform advantages have clearly performed and the performance has entered the realisation period. The company has creatively developed synthesis strategies for peptide drugs, and has sufficient competitive peptide synthesis costs and impurity advantages. Using this technology platform, the company's unit cost of liraglutide certification batch production has dropped dramatically since 2019. The average sales cost of the company's liraglutide series products from January to June 2018, 2019, and 2020 was 450.35/63.02/687,600 yuan/kg, respectively. According to data in the review inquiry letter of Nootech's listing application documents, the prospectus (declaration draft) disclosed by a company to be listed in the same industry revealed that its average unit sales cost from 2017 to 2019 was 1,6894 million yuan/kg. The company has obvious cost advantages and impurity advantages in peptide synthesis.
Deeply cultivate the field of peptides and open up the entire industry chain from intermediates to raw drugs/formulations. The company's main business is mainly self-selected products and customized products and technical services. Currently, Nootech Biotech is the only listed company among CDE registered companies. In terms of the US DMF, Nootech registered with the US DMF as early as November 1, 2021. In terms of terpopeptides, Nootech Biotech also registered the DMF in the US on February 6, 2024. According to the company's 2023 annual report, by the end of 2023, the company had obtained US DMF/VMF numbers for 12 active drug types, and obtained FDA First Approval Letters for active ingredients such as simeglutide and liraglutide. In the future, the company's performance is expected to accelerate with the release of terminal products.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. Subsequent, the company's core peptide products are expected to expand further with the launch of end customer products, opening up room for the company's long-term revenue growth. Overall, the company's net profit for 24-26 is 381 million yuan, 530 million yuan, and 695 million yuan, respectively, and EPS is 1.79 yuan/share, 2.49 yuan/share, and 3.26 yuan/share, respectively. The corresponding PE is 40.70 times, 29.27 times, and 22.34 times, respectively. Refer to comparable companies in the industry. Considering the expiration of future patent periods for GLP APIs and potential product release space for innovative drug cooperation, the company was given a 24-year 45 PE valuation, corresponding to a reasonable value of 80.49 yuan/share. Maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning. Environmental risks, technological innovation risks, new product development uncertainty risks, etc.