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人福医药(600079):场景突破、创新突破打开麻药成长空间

Renfu Pharmaceutical (600079): Scenario breakthroughs, innovative breakthroughs open up space for narcotics growth

申萬宏源研究 ·  Jun 21

Adhering to R&D innovation, gene therapy PUDK-HGF has completed phase III clinical trials. The main research projects include narcotics, antitumor drugs, and immune products. In the field of narcotics, we have a variety of new Class 1 drugs, RFUS-144, LL-50, and YJJS-71. Non-Class 1 new drugs mainly focus on a rich product line for managing pain throughout the process. In the field of non-anesthetic drugs, the fastest progressing Class 1 drug is PUDK-hGF, a gene therapy drug targeting severe lower extremity ischemic disease (CLI). Phase III clinical trials have now been completed, and production is expected to be reported this year, entering the blue ocean market with more than 5 million patients.

Profit forecasting and valuation. We expect the company's 2024-2026 revenue to be 26.463 billion, 28.663 billion, and 31.021 billion, respectively, up 7.9%, 8.3%, and 8.2% year-on-year; net profit to mother will be 2,306 billion, 2.64 billion, and 2,947 billion, up 8.0%, 14.5%, and 11.6% year-on-year, corresponding to 2024-2026 PE of 12x/11x/10x, respectively. Using the PE valuation method for comparable companies, the target market value of the company was obtained at 36.6 billion, with room for 27% increase compared to the latest closing price. Therefore, it was covered for the first time, giving the company a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: Group control risk; collection and price reduction risk; new drug development risk; risk of controlling shareholder reducing holdings in violation of regulations.

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