The company can choose many research topics, such as high-end, export, intelligence, etc. As the second in our in-depth research series, this report will explore the company's export issues that the current market is very concerned about by reviewing Toyota's export history.
Reviewing Toyota's overseas market and stock price, we found that both volume growth logic (initial & new market expansion stage) and profit growth logic (total stabilization period) can significantly drive stock prices.
Using important events in Toyota's export history as key time points, we found that the export boom led to a rise in stock prices mainly occurred in three periods. ① 74-83 [volume increase]: Domestic growth slowed down (domestic sales CAGR = 2.6%), North America grasped the boom in the oil crisis (export sales CAGR = 11.2%), stock price +379.4% during the same period (Nikkei +88.3%); ② 94-07 [volume increase]: negative growth after reaching a peak in domestic sales in '90 (domestic sales CAGR = -1.9%), exports to China increased again in '94 (export sales CAGR = 7.8%), and the stock price increased again in the same period (Nikkei) (Nikkei) 11.9 %); ③ 14-23 [profit increase]: Domestic and export growth slowed (export sales CAGR = 1.6%, domestic sales CAGR = 0.8%), but the performance CAGR for the same period was 6.8% (North American volume), and the stock price for the same period was +388.6% (Nikkei +193.9%).
The company's exports are sorted according to different regional divisions: Southeast Asia & Latin America are the current focus of volume growth (production capacity & relatively low premium), and Europe is the long-term quantitative profit focus (production capacity & high premium)
① Asia Pacific Division: 7 million space in East Asia, actively expanding, but local brands in Japan and South Korea are strong. Southeast Asia & Australia have a total volume of 10 million, and the penetration rate of new energy sources is 2%. The company sells 4 cars each in Thailand and Australia. The Thai plant is expected to be put into operation 24H2 (will be supplied to Australia). This region is the main region for short-term sales. ② European Division: The total volume in the UK is 3 million, the rest of Western Europe is 10 million+, and the penetration rate of new energy sources is 20% +. Currently, there are dozens of channels in the UK & Germany. The tax pressure is not completely inaccessible. In the medium to long term, Western Europe is an important market. Central and Eastern Europe has a total volume of 4 million, and Hungary plans production capacity. The total volume in Central and Western Asia is 500,000, and the penetration rate of new energy is 12%. The company's plant in Uzi has already been put into operation. ③ America Division: North America has barriers and focuses on Central and South America. The total volume of the South American market is 6 million. Currently, 6 models are on sale in Brazil. After the Brazilian factory is put into operation, it will contribute to sales elasticity. ④ Middle East Africa Division: The total volume is 2 million, and the penetration rate of new energy sources is low (3%). Currently, there are 2 models on sale in South Africa, and overall progress is slow. In terms of premiums, the extent of sales price premiums is shown in Europe > America > Middle East Africa > Asia Pacific > Domestic.
Profit forecast: Considering the company's new product cycle and high-end & export progress, we expect the company's overall revenue for 2024-2026 to be 8039/9560/1137 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 34%/19%/19%; overall net profit to mother of 375/476/54.4 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 25%/27%/14%, respectively, giving a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the risk that industry demand falls short of expectations, the progress of overseas expansion falls short of expectations, the risk of delays in disclosure of information in reports and untimely updates, and the risk of deviations in industry size estimates.