FUTU Morning Post

U.S. stock market preview | All three major indexes are up, with NVIDIA up more than 3% in pre-market trading, approaching a new high at the opening; Musk reveals the xAI supercomputer collaboration partner, Super Micro Computer up more than 5%, and Dell

Futu News · Jun 20 20:32

全球宏观

周四盘前，美股三大期指齐升

巴克莱：美国就业增长的一大动力恐遭明显削弱

巴克莱最新报告显示，政府完全低估了移民对美国经济的贡献，而随着拜登遏制移民增长的措施实施，就业增长可能大幅削减。该行估计，维持最近的行政措施最终将导致明年每月的就业增长减少6.5万人，而恢复特朗普政府时期的政策将导致每月就业增长减少约12.5万人。

收复失地！美联储降息预期升温，美债“涨声”渐响

美国国债今年上半年经历过山车行情，目前处于盈亏平衡的边缘。美债本轮反弹的核心是，投资者押注美国物价降温将促使美联储比官员们所暗示的更早、更大幅度地降息，从而有效限制了美国国债收益率的上涨幅度。

法兴银行：押美股稳赢但需多元化

法国兴业银行在最新报告中表示，虽然美国股市在2024年过半时仍处“最佳位置”，是一个稳定的押注，但投资者需要开始扩大投资范围，并在其他资产领域增加机会。以Alain Bokobza为首的策略师表示，自去年6月以来，该行对美国股票的敞口很大，占其总投资组合的30%。

策略师警告：美股科技股或将出现“裂痕”

CFRA Research首席投资策略师Sam Stovall近日提出警告，在美联储利率、通胀和股票估值三方面因素打压下，标普500指数即将迎来调整，可能将下跌5%。他指出，美股大型科技股的估值过高。而未来，美股科技股可能即将出现“冰层中的第一道裂痕”。

高盛：人工智能将大幅推动数据中心电力需求增长

高盛认为，ChatGPT处理一次查询所需的电量几乎是谷歌搜索的10倍。这个用电量的差异将会对美国、欧洲，甚至全世界的电力消耗方式及成本带来巨大改变。多年来，即使工作负载不断增加，数据中心对电力的需求也非常稳定。然而，随着用电效率增长的边际递减以及人工智能的兴起，高盛研究部估计到2030 年，数据中心的电力需求将增长160%。

比特币ETF发行人贝莱德罕见发出警告

在月初短暂涨上70000美元之后，比特币开始一路下跌，导致其市场总额缩水了3000亿美元，令市场期待的4万亿美元里程碑时刻变得遥遥无期，这与市场预期美联储将维持长期高利率的政策有着直接关系。比特币ETF的最大发行人贝莱德也警告，一种前所未有的局面正在发生，可能将打击比特币价格和加密货币市场。

热点要闻

明星科技股盘前多数上涨

登顶“榜一”还不够，分析师：英伟达或再涨48%

即使是在$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$的股价一年内上涨了近210%、并在近日登顶美股市值榜首后，Rosenblatt Securities分析师Hans Mosesmann仍将其目标价由此前的140美元调高至200美元，这意味着该股还能较当前水平上涨近48%。这一看涨预测也将使英伟达的估值达到创纪录的5万亿美元。截至发稿，英伟达盘前再涨超3%。

瑞穗证券：英伟达+这两家公司=“AI三骑士”

瑞穗证券分析师Jordan Klein认为，$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$是无可争议的领头羊，但最近$博通 (AVGO.US)$以及$美光科技 (MU.US)$表现突出，足以与英伟达比肩，共同组成“AI三骑士”。博通股价过去7个交易日累计上涨超过28%，市值突破8000亿美元。而美光科技股价在过去八个交易日累计上涨18%，市值约1700亿美元。

马斯克揭晓xAI超算两大合作方：戴尔和超微电脑

在社交媒体上，$戴尔科技 (DELL.US)$CEO称正与$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$合作AI工厂，支持马斯克的xAI。马斯克回应称，戴尔正在组装xAI超算的半数服务器机架。当被问到另一半机架谁做，马斯克回复是$超微电脑 (SMCI.US)$。截至发稿，超微电脑盘前涨超5%，戴尔涨近4%。

报道：台积电探索新AI芯片封装技术，允许单个晶圆放置更多组芯片

据《日经亚洲》报道，近日，$台积电 (TSM.US)$正在探索一种全新的先进芯片封装方法，以应对人工智能带来的计算需求激增。知情人士透露，这一新方法的核心是使用510毫米乘515毫米的矩形基板，而不是当前使用的传统圆形晶圆。这种设计可以在每片基板上放置更多的芯片组，从而提高生产效率。矩形基板的有效面积比圆形晶圆大三倍多，边缘剩余的无效区域也更少。

埃森哲盘前涨超7%，第三财季生成式AI销售额超过9亿美元

$埃森哲 (ACN.US)$第三财季营收从去年同期的165.65亿美元小幅增长至164.67亿美元，尽管略低于市场预期的165.39亿美元；每股收益3.04美元，略低于去年同期的3.15美元。财报显示，埃森哲第三财季生成式AI销售额超过9亿美元，为公司带来了显著的业绩增长。截至发稿，埃森哲盘前涨超7%。

聚焦中概股

热门中概股多数走强

哔哩哔哩盘前涨超7%，手游《三国：谋定天下》表现超预期

$哔哩哔哩 (BILI.US)$代理发行游戏《三国：谋定天下》6月13日开启公测，表现超预期。点点数据指，该游戏在公测首日就登陆免费榜第二，以及iOS游戏畅销榜第三。花旗预计该手游如果能够保持在前10名的位置，第一个月的收入将达到7亿至10亿元人民币；给予哔哩哔哩目标价15.5美元，评级“中性”。截至发稿，哔哩哔哩盘前大涨超7%。

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

（以下均为北京时间）

20:30 美国当周初请失业金人数/美国6月费城联储制造业指数/美国第一季度经常帐/美国5月营建许可总数/美国5月新屋开工总数年化

23:00 美国当周EIA原油库存

次日凌晨04:00 2024年FOMC票委、里奇蒙德联储主席巴尔金就经济前景发表讲话

编辑/tolk

Global macro

Before the Thursday market opens, the three major futures of the US stock market rose together.

Barclays: One of the major drivers of US employment growth may be significantly weakened.

Barclays' latest report shows that the government has completely underestimated the contribution of immigrants to the US economy, and as Biden's measures to curb immigration growth are implemented, job growth may be significantly reduced. The bank estimates that maintaining recent administrative measures will ultimately result in a reduction of 65,000 job growth per month next year, while restoring Trump-era policies will result in a decrease of about 125,000 job growth per month.

Regaining lost ground! The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve has increased, and the "upward" trend of US bonds is gradually emerging.

US Treasuries have experienced a roller coaster ride in the first half of this year and are currently on the edge of breakeven. The core of this round of rebound in US bonds is that investors are betting that US price cooling will prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates earlier and more significantly than officials have hinted, effectively limiting the magnitude of the increase in US Treasury yields.

Societe Generale: Bet on US stocks to win steadily, but diversification is needed.

Societe Generale stated in its latest report that although the US stock market will still be in the "best position" after 2024, which is a stable bet, investors need to start expanding their investment scope and increase opportunities in other asset areas. Strategist Alain Bokobza said that since June last year, the bank has a large exposure to US stocks, accounting for 30% of its total investment portfolio.

Strategist warns: US technology stocks may show "cracks".

Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist at CFRA Research, recently issued a warning that under the pressure of the Federal Reserve's interest rates, inflation, and stock valuations, the S&P 500 index is about to usher in an adjustment and may fall by 5%. He pointed out that the valuation of large technology stocks in the US stock market is too high. In the future, US technology stocks may show the first cracks in the ice layer.

Goldman Sachs: Artificial Intelligence will significantly increase the electrical utilities demand for datacenters.

Goldman Sachs believes that the amount of electricity ChatGPT needs to process a query is almost 10 times that of Google search. The difference in electricity consumption will bring about huge changes in the way of energy consumption and cost in the United States, Europe, and even the world. For many years, even as workloads continue to increase, the demand for electricity in data centers has been very stable. However, with the marginal decreasing of the growth of electricity consumption efficiency and the rise of artificial intelligence, Goldman Sachs Research estimates that the demand for electricity in data centers will increase by 160% by 2030.

Bitcoin ETF issuer BlackRock issued a rare warning.

After briefly rising to $70,000 earlier this month, Bitcoin started to decline all the way, causing its market capitalization to shrink by $300 billion, making the long-awaited milestone of $4 trillion in the market far away. This has a direct relationship with the market’s expectation that the Federal Reserve will maintain a long-term high-interest-rate policy. BlackRock, the largest issuer of Bitcoin ETFs, also warns that an unprecedented situation is happening and may hit the Bitcoin price and cryptocurrency market.

Hot news

Most of the growth tech stocks have risen in pre-market trading.

Reaching the top of the list is not enough, analyst: Nvidia may rise by another 48%.

Even as the stock price of [Nvidia] rose nearly 210% in the past year and recently topped the US stock market value list, Rosenblatt Securities analyst Hans Mosesmann raised its target price from the previous $140 to $200, meaning that the stock can still rise by nearly 48% from the current level. This bullish forecast will also make Nvidia's valuation reach a record $5 trillion. As of press time, Nvidia rose more than 3% in pre-market trading.$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$Nomura Securities: Nvidia + these two companies = "AI Troika".

[Nvidia] is an undisputed leader, but recently [Broadcom]'s performance has been outstanding enough to rival Nvidia and together they form the "AI Troika". Broadcom's stock price has risen for more than seven trading days, accumulating more than 28%, and its market value has exceeded US$800 billion. Micron Technology's stock price has risen for more than eight trading days, accumulating 18%, and its market value is about US$170 billion.

On social media,$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ $Broadcom (AVGO.US)$and $Micron Technology (MU.US)$

Musk revealed two major partners for xAI supercomputing: Dell and Super Micro Computer.

$Dell Technologies (DELL.US)$The CEO said that he is working with ai factories to support Musk's xAI. Musk responded that Dell is assembling half of the server racks for the xAI supercomputer. When asked who will do the other half, Musk replied, "I will." As of publication, Super Micro Computer rose more than 5% in pre-market trading, while Dell rose nearly 4%.$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$Cooperating with ai factories, supporting Musk's xAI. Musk responded that Dell is assembling half of the server racks for the xAI supercomputer. When asked who will do the other half, Musk replied "I will".$Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$As of press time, Super Micro Computer rose more than 5% in pre-market trading, while Dell rose nearly 4%.

Report: Taiwan Semiconductor explores new ai chip packaging technology, allowing more chipsets to be placed on a single wafer.

According to Nikkei Asia, recently, Intel has been exploring a new advanced chip packaging method to cope with the rapidly increasing computing demand brought by artificial intelligence. Insiders revealed that the core of this new method is to use rectangular substrates of 510mm by 515mm, rather than the current circular wafers. This design allows more chipsets to be placed on each substrate, thereby improving production efficiency. The effective area of the rectangular substrate is more than three times larger than that of the circular wafer, and there is less unused edge area.$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$Exploring a new advanced chip packaging method to deal with the surge in computing requirements brought by ai. Insiders say the core of this new method is to use a rectangular substrate measuring 510mm by 515mm, rather than the traditional circular wafer currently used. The design can accommodate more chipsets on each substrate, increasing production efficiency. The effective area of the rectangular substrate is more than three times that of the circular wafer, with less invalid area around the edge.

Accenture rose more than 7% in pre-market trading, with third-quarter generated AI sales exceeding $900 million.

$Accenture (ACN.US)$In the third quarter, revenue increased slightly from the same period last year, from $16.565 billion to $16.467 billion, although slightly lower than market expectations of $16.539 billion. Earnings per share were $3.04, slightly lower than the same period last year. According to the report, Accenture's third-quarter generated AI sales exceeded $900 million, bringing significant performance growth to the company. As of publication, Accenture rose more than 7% in pre-market trading.

Not to be outdone, after NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun announced the latest AI chip iteration schedule on the evening of June 2nd, AMD CEO Su Zifeng also threw out an iteration roadmap during her speech on the morning of June 3rd before the COMPUTEX opened. The company will launch the MI325 X and Ryzen AI300 this year, the MI350 series in 2025, and the MI400 series in 2026.

Most popular China concept stocks are rising.

Bilibili rose more than 7% in pre-market trading, and the mobile game "Three Kingdoms: The World is Determined" performed better than expected.

$Bilibili (BILI.US)$The game "Three Kingdoms: The World is Determined" launched its public beta test on June 13 and performed better than expected. According to data from Dodo, the game ranked second in the free list and third in the iOS game bestsellers list on the first day. Citigroup estimates that if this mobile game can maintain its position in the top 10, its first month's revenue will reach 700 million to 1 billion yuan. The target price of Bilibili is $15.5, with a "neutral" rating. As of publication, Bilibili soared more than 7% in pre-market trading.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

20:30 Weekly jobless claims / June Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index / Q1 US current account / May US building permits / May US housing starts annualized.

23:00 US weekly EIA crude oil inventory.

Speech on economic prospects by 2024 FOMC voter, Richmond Fed President Barkin at 04:00 the next day.

Editor/tolk

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