Source: Jin10 Data
A new report from Wall Street shows that the government has completely underestimated the contribution of immigrants to the US economy, and with the implementation of Biden's measures to curb immigration growth, job growth may be significantly reduced.
A report from the Congressional Budget Office estimates that population growth is higher than the data from the Census Bureau, prompting economists to reconsider the contribution of immigration to the US economy. And a new report from Wall Street states that even the report from the congressional budget office underestimates the wave of immigration.
Barclays, in a new immigration report combining the bank's half-year outlook, estimated that net immigration reached 4 million last year, compared to the Congressional Budget Office's estimate of 3.3 million, which already exceeded the data from other US government institutions.
Barclays' report is based on their newly developed tracking system combining 14 official sources of data. The report states that the Congressional Budget Office did not take into account the record immigration growth in December of last year. Barclays estimates that there has been a cooling of immigration growth since then, but it is still much higher than in previous years.
Barclays' report states that the surge in US immigration is driven by the so-called humanitarian immigration, most of which are asylum seekers. These asylum seekers come from different countries in Central and South Americas, and can obtain work permits after staying in the US for at least 180 days, according to US immigration law.
The Barclays team led by Marc Giannoni believes that the wave of immigration has helped promote US economic development and reduce inflation.
"The surge in immigration since the pandemic may be one of the key factors that keep the macro outlook elastic, help alleviate the widespread labor supply shortage after the pandemic, and provide some direct support to total demand....We believe that without this impact, labor shortages would be a more serious adverse factor. This could exacerbate wage and price pressures, leading to the Fed taking a more hawkish monetary policy stance. "
They estimate that the addition of 4 million immigrants last year resulted in an increase of 2.5 million jobs and accounted for about three-quarters of the increase in employment in the private sector last year.
Immigrants contributed nearly one third of the output growth in working hours, offsetting the decline in working hours of native workers.
Before the US general election, the Biden administration is trying to curb immigration growth. The Barclays team estimates that maintaining recent executive measures will ultimately result in a decrease of 65,000 jobs per month next year, while restoring policies from the Trump administration will lead to a decrease of about 125,000 jobs per month.
The Barclays team pointed out that Biden's new regulations took effect on June 4, but have not yet appeared in Labor Department data, as it takes six months from entering the US as a humanitarian immigrant to obtaining a work permit. Labor Department data shows that non-farm employment increased by 272,000 in May, with an average of 232,000 in the past 12 months.
The Real Clear Politics poll average shows that former President Trump has a slight lead over Biden in the general election, and leads his opponent by 3 percentage points in key states.
Editor/tolk