Bloomberg Intelligence released an analysis of the China 618 shopping festival on June 19, predicting that the transaction volume (GMV) of Alibaba's Taobao and Tmall will grow by more than 10% this year, reflecting the new management team's initial success in responding to China's e-commerce competition.
The report was jointly completed by Bloomberg senior analysts Catherine Lim and Trini Tan. They predict that the overall growth rate of China's 5 e-commerce platforms, including Taobao and Tmall, JD.com, Douyin, Pinduoduo and Kuaishou, in this year's 618 will be about 10%. The data analysis quoted in the report shows that in the first cycle of the 618 promotion (May 20 to June 3), the overall growth rate of the 5 e-commerce platforms was about 16.7%, of which Taobao and Tmall accounted for 48% of the overall transaction volume and maintained the top market share position.
However, due to the early start of the overall sales and discount cycle, Bloomberg expects that the growth rate of the Chinese e-commerce market in the last two weeks of the 618 promotion may decline to 5%, but the overall growth rate of the entire 618 cycle is still around 10%.
In response to this, Wall Street investment bank Jefferies report believes that although Alibaba has not yet announced its 618 sales data, experts generally expect that Taobao and Tmall's core performance indicators, such as GMV, repurchase rate, and 88vip members, have performed well. Jefferies' analysis believes that compared to its competitors, Alibaba has obvious advantages in product selection and data insights for shelf e-commerce. In addition, Taobao and Tmall have significantly increased their subsidies in this year's 618 promotion, providing not only product subsidies for consumers, but also a large number of free operating tools for merchants. Alibaba has also been strengthening the consumer experience and merchant performance through reinvestment and AI strategies.
Bloomberg's estimate is that due to the strong performance of Taobao and Tmall in the first cycle of this year's 618 promotion, they are expected to continue to achieve double-digit growth in GMV in the quarter ending in June, and the income from customer management fees of the Tiantian Group is expected to achieve a year-on-year increase of 10%.