On June 19th, Bloomberg Intelligence released an analysis of China's 618 e-commerce promotion, predicting that the GMV of Taobao and Tmall, owned by Alibaba, will grow by over 10% during this year's 618 period, reflecting the new management's initial success in responding to competition in China's e-commerce market.
The report was jointly completed by Bloomberg senior analysts Catherine Lim and Trini Tan. They predict that the overall growth rate of the five major Chinese e-commerce platforms, including Taobao and Tmall, JD.com, Douyin, Pdd Holdings, and Kuaishou, during this year's 618 event will be around 10%. The data analysis cited in the report shows that during the first period of this year's 618 promotion (May 20th to June 3rd), the overall growth rate of the five e-commerce platforms was about 16.7%, with Taobao and Tmall accounting for 48% of the overall transaction volume, maintaining their market share as the industry leader.
However, due to the early start of the overall sales and discount cycle, Bloomberg expects that the growth rate of the Chinese e-commerce market in the last two weeks of the 618 promotion may decline to 5%, but the overall growth rate of the entire 618 cycle is still around 10%.
In response to this, Wall Street investment bank Jefferies report believes that although Alibaba has not yet announced its 618 sales data, experts generally expect that Taobao and Tmall's core performance indicators, such as GMV, repurchase rate, and 88vip members, have performed well. Jefferies' analysis believes that compared to its competitors, Alibaba has obvious advantages in product selection and data insights for shelf e-commerce. In addition, Taobao and Tmall have significantly increased their subsidies in this year's 618 promotion, providing not only product subsidies for consumers, but also a large number of free operating tools for merchants. Alibaba has also been strengthening the consumer experience and merchant performance through reinvestment and AI strategies.
HSBC also pointed out in the report that Alibaba has strengthened its advantage in low prices by simplifying the promotion rules and increasing subsidies, especially through measures such as enriching products with billion-yuan subsidies, upgrading discounts and logistics rights for 88VIP members, which have all boosted user stickiness.
Bloomberg's estimate is that due to the strong performance of Taobao and Tmall in the first cycle of this year's 618 promotion, they are expected to continue to achieve double-digit growth in GMV in the quarter ending in June, and the income from customer management fees of the Tiantian Group is expected to achieve a year-on-year increase of 10%.
