Both major markets' interest rates are rising, will there be a future interest rate cut?

Wind · Jun 20 15:53

来源：wind

6月LPR保持不变，符合市场预期。在临近月末叠加季度末之际，两大市场利率均有所抬升，后期是否还有降息空间，值得关注。

6月LPR继续保持不变

中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2024年6月20日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.45%，5年期以上LPR为3.95%。Wind数据显示，这是央行2月份将5年期LPR调降至3.95%后，连续4个月保持不变。而1年期LPR则是去年8月份调降后连续10个月保持不变。

近日，央行行长潘功胜在第十五届陆家嘴论坛上表示，进一步健全市场化的利率调控机制。持续改革完善贷款市场报价利率（LPR），针对部分报价利率显著偏离实际最优惠客户利率的问题，着重提高LPR报价质量，更真实反映贷款市场利率水平。

Shibor隔夜持续走高

近期，上海银行间同业拆放利率持续走高。Wind数据显示，临近月末叠加季度末，Shibor隔夜6月20日最新报1.877%，创5月以来新高。这也是6月以来第三个交易日利率在1.8%上方运行。离今年最高点4月30日的1.921%并不远。可见月末和季度末来临，银行间市场利率在持续走高。

从今年整体来看，Shibor隔夜上下变动频繁，整体在1.5%~1.9%之间波动，没有大幅上涨突破2%。而绝大多数时间都在1.8%下方运行，仅很少数时间临近月末或季度末才会短暂突破1.8%。总体上，今年银行间资金面整体充裕，随着央行公开市场操作加大资金投放，月末最后几个交易日利率继续大幅上涨概率或不大。

交易所国债逆回购利率攀升

临近月末、季度末，交易所国债逆回购年化利率也有所上涨。Wind行情显示，6月20日，18个品种15个上涨或持平，占据多数。其中覆盖月末的14天期品种年化利率已突破2%，处于近期高位，但离前期3月末、4月末还有一定的距离。

后期还有降息空间？

长江证券马祥云团队认为，进一步降息面临内外部双重约束。从内部看，银行业净息差已经过低，2024Q1 商业银行口径的净息差环比下降15BP 至1.54%的历史新低位，而央行多次提及利润是银行补充资本的重要来源，净息差过低将影响银行可持续服务实体经济的能力。从外部看，2023 年以来中美利差持续倒挂，当前倒挂已超过200BP，人民币汇率面临贬值压力。因此判断短期内进一步降息的概率有限。

光大银行金融市场部宏观研究员周茂华表示，6月LPR利率保持稳定，主要是国内商业银行净息差压力依然较大，个人住房贷利率下限取消等一揽子政策出台，有助于满足刚需与改善型住房需求，提振楼市信心；商业银行短期进一步调整LPR利率门槛不低。

信达证券宏观团队解运亮、肖张羽认为，往后看，预计三季度仍有降息的概率。第一，去年三季度GDP增速加快，今年三季度将面对较高的基数，如果经济动能继续转弱，三季度增速有降至5%以下的风险。第二，美、欧等经济体先后宣布拟针对我国电动汽车等商品加征关税，如果未来出现地缘政治扰动加大的情况，央行下调政策利率或将水到渠成。

编辑/lambor

Source: Wind.

In June, LPR remained unchanged, in line with market expectations. As the end of the month approaches, both major market interest rates have risen, and it is worth paying attention to whether there is still room for interest rate cuts in the future.

In June, LPR remains unchanged.

The People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Funding Center to announce that the loan market quoted interest rate (LPR) on June 20, 2024, is: 1-year LPR is 3.45%, and 5 years or more LPR is 3.95%. Wind data shows that this is the fourth consecutive month that 5-year LPR has remained unchanged since the central bank lowered it to 3.95% in February. The 1-year LPR remained unchanged 10 consecutive months after a reduction in August last year.

Recently, Pan Gongsheng, the governor of the People's Bank of China, stated at the 15th Lujiazui Forum that the market-oriented interest rate control mechanism should be further improved. Continuously reform and improve the loan market quoted interest rate (LPR), focus on improving the quality of LPR quotes for those do not accurately reflects the actual most favorable customer interest rate, and more effectively reflect the level of loan market interest rates.

Shibor overnight rate continues to rise.

Recently, interbank rates in Shanghai continue to rise. Wind data shows that as the end of the month and quarter approaches, Shibor's overnight rate on June 20th reported 1.877%, reaching a new high since May. This is also the third trading day since June that the rate has been around 1.8% or higher. The rate is still not far from the highest point of this year on April 30, of 1.921%. It can be seen that as the end of the month and quarter approaches, interbank market interest rates continue to rise.

Overall, Shibor's overnight rate has fluctuated between 1.5% and 1.9% this year without a significant increase or breakthrough beyond 2%. It operated mostly below 1.8%, with only a few short-term increases just before the end of the month or quarter. Overall, interbank funding has been generally sufficient this year, and the probability of a sharp increase in rates in the last few trading days of the month with the increased injection of funds by the central bank in open market operations is relatively low.

The interest rates of the exchange-traded treasury repurchase agreements have increased.

As the end of the month and quarter approaches, the annualized interest rates of exchange-traded treasury repurchase agreements have also increased. Wind data shows that on June 20th, 15 out of 18 varieties had increased or remained unchanged, occupying the majority. Among them, the 14-day varieties that cover the end of the month have an annualized interest rate that has exceeded 2%, which is a recent high, but still far from the end of March and April.

Is there still room for interest rate cuts in the future?

The Changjiang Securities Ma Xiangyun team believes that further interest rate cuts face both internal and external constraints. Internally, banks' net interest margin is already too low, and the net interest margin of commercial banks in the first quarter of 2024 fell by 15BP to a record low of 1.54%. The central bank has mentioned multiple times that profits are an important source of bank capital supplementation, and that too low net interest margins will affect the ability of banks to sustainably serve the real economy. Externally, since 2023, the interest rate spread between China and the United States has been continuously inverted, and the current inversion has exceeded 200BP. Therefore, it is judged that the probability of further interest rate cuts in the short term is limited.

Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher in the Financial Market Department of China Everbright Bank, said that the stable LPR rate in June is mainly due to the continued pressure on net interest margins of domestic commercial banks. The overall policy of lowering the lower limit of individual housing loan interest rates is conducive to meeting the needs of both first-time buyers and those who wish to improve their housing, and boosting confidence in the property market. However, the threshold for short-term adjustments in LPR rates by commercial banks is not low.

The macro team of Sinolink Securities, Jie Yunliang and Xiao Zhangyu, believes that there is still a probability of interest rate cuts in the third quarter. Firstly, the GDP growth rate accelerated in the third quarter of last year, and the third quarter of this year will face a high base. If economic momentum continues to weaken, there is a risk that the growth rate in the third quarter will fall below 5%. Secondly, the United States, Europe and other economies have announced plans to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and other goods. In the future, if there are increases in geopolitical disturbances, the central bank may lower policy rates.

Editor/Lambor

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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两大市场利率纷纷走高，后期还会降息？