According to a report released by CICC, the 618 Shopping Festival in mainland China has ended, and e-commerce has maintained resilience this year. Except for jd.com (09618.HK), other platforms no longer disclose their 618 performance. The total online physical commodity retail sales in the first five months of this year increased by 11.5% year-on-year to 4.8 trillion yuan, with a significant growth rate outpacing the total social retail commodity sales. This is mainly due to e-commerce platforms focusing more on consumers, actively adjusting their own strategies to cater to user choices, and further enhancing competitiveness in price, user experience, and service. The bank determines that the GMV performance of major commodity shelves on e-commerce platforms in the second quarter may exceed expectations.

The bank pointed out that when the growth rate of traffic and GMV of content e-commerce slows down and the increment of channels becomes less, the motivation for sellers to use stock channels to subsidize incremental channels will decrease. However, when the content e-commerce tries to transform into the commodity shelf model, it enters the advantage and capability scope of commodity shelf e-commerce. The input of commodity shelf e-commerce in price, consumer experience, and service is further consolidating its own advantages.

Looking forward, some e-commerce platforms will increase the selection and survival of merchants, and the model of using stock channel profits to subsidize incremental channels may be difficult to continue. Merchants lacking competitiveness in areas such as quality, price, and service may face challenges.

The bank maintains its earnings forecast, target price, and rating for each company, rating alibaba (09988.HK) and Kuaishou (01024.HK) as outperforming the industry, and setting target prices of 109 yuan and 75 yuan, respectively.