According to the Futu Securities app, mainland real estate stocks continued to fall recently. As of press time, China Vanke (02202) fell 3.88% to HKD 4.96, Sunac (01918) fell 3.28% to HKD 1.18, Seazen (01030) fell 2.22% to HKD 1.32, and R&F Properties (02777) fell 1.1% to HKD 0.9.

CITIC Securities pointed out that due to solid fundamentals, strong policy support, and decisive action, Shanghai's real estate market has stabilized first in the second-hand housing sector. According to Wind data, the average number of second-hand housing transactions in Shanghai increased by 64% compared to May 2024, reaching 971 sets per day in the last 7 days (June 12-18) with statistics. The Iceberg Index shows that as of June 16, the second-hand housing market in Shanghai has seen a slight increase in prices for two consecutive weeks, rising by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. The bank believes that structural recovery will unfold in a pattern of first-tier cities followed by second-tier, and that real estate will not become a core risk point for the macroeconomy.

GTJA pointed out that the trend of weakening investment and strengthening sales in the real estate industry continues, and given the base effect, the sustained recovery needs further consolidation. Attention should be paid to the growth of unsold area that represents risk release, which is still improving. The bank believes that the bottom of the risk has been explored and, despite still being in adjustment, the market will no longer worry about the risk.