Key points of investment:
Whole-house intelligence is on the rise, and the company leverages the “1+4+N” ecosystem
Fluorite Network establishes a “1+4+N” product ecosystem and lays out the smart home business with a cloud platform as the core. The company's “1+4+N” product ecosystem is centered on fluorite cloud services, smart home cameras, smart home robots and intelligent control as the main product lines, and expands to more categories through ecological cooperation, etc., to finally achieve a whole-house intelligent business layout, providing differentiated products and services for consumers and industry customers.
The global and Chinese home camera industry continues to grow steadily, and the company is expected to fully benefit
According to iResearch data, China's home camera industry shipped 40.4 million units in 2020, and is expected to reach 81.75 million units by 2025, with a compound growth rate of 15.1%; global home camera shipments are 88.89 million units in 2020, which is expected to reach 214.91 million units in 2025, and the compound growth rate is expected to reach 19.3%. According to iFind data, the company sold about 12.79 million smart cameras in 2020. According to this, it is estimated that the company's global market share is around 14%. We believe that as the penetration rate of home cameras increases, so will the company's revenue and performance.
The scale of the smart door lock industry is growing steadily, and the competitive pattern is relatively scattered to provide the company with entry opportunities. According to Luotu Technology data, sales in China's smart door lock industry increased from 14 million units to 1.81 million units in 2019-2023; judging from the competitive landscape, taking online channels as an example, currently the top five industry market share are Xiaomi, Deschman, Cadis, Haier and Boke, respectively, with a total market share of no more than 45%. It is still in a relatively loose state. As a new participant, the company has a relative competitive advantage in the visual technology route, and is expected to share the dividends of smart lock growth.
The multi-category layout continues to improve, and AI is expected to bring new growth points to the company. In addition to cameras and door locks, the company is also launching household sweeping robots and commercial sweeping robots to lay out the C-end and B-side markets; the company is also continuously updating and upgrading the software and hardware of companion robot products to enhance external perception, cloud collaboration, and cross-device communication capabilities.
In addition, the company continues to optimize C-side value-added services, focus on home safety and health scenarios for the elderly, and launch algorithm products such as senseless sleep partners and video health consulting services; in terms of B-side algorithms, the company launched fluorite AI digital human services, which are mainly used in showrooms, business guidance, product introduction, etc., to serve customers in the financial, medical, and government fields.
Profit forecasting and investment advice
We expect the company to achieve net profit of 7.2/8.7/1.06 billion yuan in 2024-2026 respectively, +28%/22%/22% YoY. We adopted a comparable company valuation method. According to iFind's consistent profit forecast, after excluding the highest and lowest valuations of comparable companies in 24, the average PE value of comparable companies in 2024-2025 was 31.3/22.7 times, respectively, higher than the company's 40.7/33.5 times. Considering that the company's main camera business is steady and the second growth curve is clear, the business layout in the AI field can enjoy a certain premium, cover for the first time, and give it a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Industry demand falls short of expectations, raw material prices have risen sharply, and the competitive landscape has deteriorated.