Gold prices have fluctuated downwards since November, falling below the psychological $1450 / oz mark last week, hitting a three-month low. Spot gold prices rose again and fell back in Asian trading on Tuesday, trading around $1470 an ounce. Investors in gold-traded open-end funds (ETF) made redemptions as safe-haven demand was suppressed.

The world's largest gold ETF--SPDR Gold Trust holdings saw outflows of $620.7 million on Friday, the largest one-day outflow since October 2016, according to data. As of November 19, SPDR Gold Trust's position was 891.79 tons, down 22.88 tons from 914.67 tons in early November.

As far as the domestic is concerned, data show that, as of November 18, November, Huaan Fund, Cathay Pacific Fund, Boshi Fund and Yifangda Fund's gold ETF have all been net redemptions to varying degrees, with the overall redemption scale reaching 582.5 million yuan. Among them, Asian largest gold ETF-- Huaan gold ETF redemption scale is the largest, shrinking 115.8 million shares, based on the interval average transaction price, the net outflow is about 382.1 million yuan; Cathay Pacific gold ETF showed a net redemption of 6.6 million shares, the share shrank by 7.37%; Boshi gold ETF and Yi Fonda gold ETF share shrank by 2.91% and 1.03% respectively. In terms of performance, the net worth of several gold ETF has fallen more than 2.8 per cent since November.

Wang Xiang, manager of the Boshi gold ETF fund, said that gold had turned into shock consolidation after a round of drastic adjustment last week, and market anxiety rebounded briefly after Trump claimed that no agreement had been reached on lifting tariffs on China, but remained optimistic about the first phase of the agreement. In his luncheon speech at the New York Economic Club on Tuesday, Trump spent most of his time focusing on the internal economic performance of the United States, mainly a review of the promises he has made since taking office. Trump said he would reach a trade agreement with China 'soon', but did not provide new details. This may still be a negotiating strategy. According to the feedback of the participants, most people expect the first phase of the agreement between China and the United States to be almost "certain". "

From a configuration point of view, Wang Xiang believes that based on overall optimistic expectations and the stabilization of some economic data to support the Fed's move not to cut interest rates this year, the rebound in the gold market last week was relatively weak and was under pressure near the support-to-resistance level of US $1475, and did not rule out the possibility of falling again in the short term. If it is effectively adjusted to an area around US $1425, it may be a better entry opportunity for medium-and long-term allocation of funds.

Qin Yuan, a non-ferrous analyst at CITIC Construction Investment Steel, believes that the US economy has always been resilient, superimposed three preventive interest rate cuts, and the recession prospect is difficult to say in the short term. Although China's economic data in October are weak, factors such as whether countercyclical policies will be strengthened and whether the economy can get off to a good start in the first quarter of next year will determine the medium-term price trend of gold to a certain extent.

Qin Yuan said that the total gold position fell from a high position, but the overall position is still in a high position, indicating that the overall attention of the gold market is still high. Taken together, the recent sharp revision in gold prices has released risks to a certain extent, pricing global interest rates and the prospects for Sino-US trade negotiations, and taking into account the short-and medium-term recovery of the global economy. For a period of time in the future, we hold the overall range of $1450 to $1500 shock consolidation, waiting for the direction of judgment. "