The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
What Is Trip.com Group's Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Trip.com Group had debt of CN¥47.3b at the end of March 2024, a reduction from CN¥52.7b over a year. However, it does have CN¥67.7b in cash offsetting this, leading to net cash of CN¥20.4b.
How Healthy Is Trip.com Group's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Trip.com Group had liabilities of CN¥86.8b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥13.1b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥67.7b as well as receivables valued at CN¥15.3b due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥16.9b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
Of course, Trip.com Group has a titanic market capitalization of CN¥237.3b, so these liabilities are probably manageable. However, we do think it is worth keeping an eye on its balance sheet strength, as it may change over time. Despite its noteworthy liabilities, Trip.com Group boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!
Even more impressive was the fact that Trip.com Group grew its EBIT by 361% over twelve months. If maintained that growth will make the debt even more manageable in the years ahead. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Trip.com Group's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. While Trip.com Group has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. Happily for any shareholders, Trip.com Group actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT over the last two years. That sort of strong cash generation warms our hearts like a puppy in a bumblebee suit.
Summing Up
We could understand if investors are concerned about Trip.com Group's liabilities, but we can be reassured by the fact it has has net cash of CN¥20.4b. The cherry on top was that in converted 183% of that EBIT to free cash flow, bringing in CN¥21b. So is Trip.com Group's debt a risk? It doesn't seem so to us. Above most other metrics, we think its important to track how fast earnings per share is growing, if at all. If you've also come to that realization, you're in luck, because today you can view this interactive graph of Trip.com Group's earnings per share history for free.
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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