Zhì tōng cái jīng APP huòdé xīn, píng ān zhèng quàn fā bù lùn wèi, mùqián bǎoxiǎn hángyè gūzhí hé chípóng réng chǔ dǐbù, beta shǔxìng yǔ dìchǎn tóuzī fēngxiǎn huǎnjiā lánkùai bǎnkuài gūzhí dǐbù xiūfù, kànhǎo hángyè chángqī pèizhì jiàzhí. Fùzhàiduān, 24 Q1 shòu xiǎn NBV pǔbiàn jiù dà fú zēng zhǎng, jūmín chúcún xūqiú wàngshèng, bǎoxiǎn jìn pǐn shōuyì lǜ xiàjiàng, chúcún xiǎn xūqiú jiāng chíxù shìfàng, yùjì 24 Q2 de NBV zēng zhǎng yālì yǒuwàng huǎnjiě, 2024 quánnián yǒuwàng yánxù fùzhàiduān gǎishàn zhī shì. Chǎnxiǎn mǎtàixiàoyìng xiàn xiǎn, jiégòu yōuhuà, yùjì 2024 nián bǎofèi wěi zēng, COR gǎishàn. Zīchǎnduān, yùjì shínián qī guózhàn shōuyìlǜ xiàxíng kōngjiān bùdà, dìchǎn zhèngcè chíxù fālì, A gǔ xiàbàn nián jiégòu xìng jīhuì zēngjiā, jiāng zhùlì xiǎnqǐ tóuzī shōuyìlǜ hé jìnglìrùn gǎishàn.
Recommendation: China Pacific Insurance (601601.SH), New China Life Insurance (601336.SH), China Life Insurance (601628.SH).
Ping An Securities' view is as follows:
Market review: institutional holdings are still at the bottom, and real estate investment is the main factor affecting the performance of insurance stocks.
Although the NBV of life insurance has increased significantly, the market is clearly influenced by the real estate market. The insurance index in 2024 presents a characteristic of rising first, then falling and then rebounding. As of June 14th, A-share main indexes have risen and fallen since 2024: Shanghai Composite Index 1.94%, CSI 300 Index 3.22%, Non-banking Financial Index (Shenwan) -4.00%, Insurance II Index (Shenwan) 5.98%, and the Insurance II outperformed the CSI 300 Index with an excess yield of 2.76%.
Specifically: 1) From mid-January to mid-March, under the dual stimulation of the market's high dividend strategy and the concept of state-owned enterprise market value management, insurance stocks have low valuations, high dividend yields, and are favored by market funds, and the insurance index outperformed the CSI 300 index. 2) From the end of February to mid-April, although listed insurance companies announced annual reports one after another in March, the total new life insurance and NBV achieved significant positive growth in 2023. However, affected by the rumor of Vanke and insurance institutional debt "extension" at the end of February, the insurance index turned downward and outperformed the CSI 300 index with an excess loss. 3) Since mid-April, real estate policies have continued to exert force, helping to resolve risks on the asset side of insurance companies, and the insurance index has continued to rebound. Especially after the Ministry of Commerce and other departments announced a series of measures to help digest existing commodity housing on May 17th, the insurance index once again outperformed the CSI 300 index.
Liabilities side: life insurance is expected to continue to improve, and overall liability costs are controllable.
1) Insurance demand: residents' demand for savings insurance is still strong. 2) Product strategy: focus on the sales of savings insurance and promote the promotion of guarantee insurance. 3) Channel development: the value of bank insurance is king, and the number of personal insurance policies is steadily increasing in both quantity and quality. 4) Liability costs: new business costs have generally increased, and regulatory guidance continues to guide the cost reduction. In recent years, insurance companies' investment returns have been under pressure, and life insurance liability costs have risen, exacerbating market concerns about interest rate spread losses. Major listed insurance companies have lowered their risk discount rate assumptions and investment return rate assumptions; at the same time, regulatory strengthening guidance and insurance companies have actively adjusted in parallel, and life insurance liability costs are expected to decrease and interest rate spread risks are expected to ease.
Asset side: anchored by long-term debt, real estate repair and equity flexibility are expected.
1) The bottom of long-term interest rates has stabilized, and long-term government bonds will continue to play the role of "stable anchor". The gradual issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds will increase the supply of high-quality long-term bonds in the market. 2) Real estate policies continue to exert force, helping to resolve investment risks on the part of insurance companies. If the real estate market improves marginally, it is expected to improve insurance companies' pressure of asset impairment and resolve investment risks. 3) The structural market continues, and there is an increase in mid-term equity opportunities. With the increase of structural opportunities in the A-share market in the second half of the year, the investment return rate of listed insurance companies is expected to improve year-on-year, and net profit is expected to stabilize and rebound.
Risk warning: market volatility causes profit pressure, and plate market fluctuations are severe. Life insurance new orders and NBV are lower than expected. Regulatory policies are increasingly stringent. Long-term interest rates fell more than expected. Property insurance claims exceed expectations and cause a decline in underwriting profits.