Allbirds, Inc. (NASDAQ:BIRD) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 28% share price drop in the last month. The recent drop completes a disastrous twelve months for shareholders, who are sitting on a 58% loss during that time.

In spite of the heavy fall in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Allbirds' price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.3x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Luxury industry in the United States, where the median P/S ratio is around 0.8x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

What Does Allbirds' Recent Performance Look Like?

Allbirds hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining revenue compares poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth in their revenues on average. Perhaps the market is expecting its poor revenue performance to improve, keeping the P/S from dropping. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Allbirds would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 17%. This has soured the latest three-year period, which nevertheless managed to deliver a decent 7.4% overall rise in revenue. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the revenue growth recently has been mostly respectable for the company.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the five analysts covering the company suggest revenue growth is heading into negative territory, declining 17% over the next year. That's not great when the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 5.7%.

In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Allbirds' P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the negative growth outlook.

What Does Allbirds' P/S Mean For Investors?

With its share price dropping off a cliff, the P/S for Allbirds looks to be in line with the rest of the Luxury industry. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

Our check of Allbirds' analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking revenue isn't bringing down its P/S as much as we would have predicted. With this in mind, we don't feel the current P/S is justified as declining revenues are unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. If we consider the revenue outlook, the P/S seems to indicate that potential investors may be paying a premium for the stock.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 5 warning signs with Allbirds, and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If you're unsure about the strength of Allbirds' business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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