According to the latest data from the Joint Oil Data Initiative (JODI), Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil-exporting country, saw its crude oil exports decrease by 6.9% from 6.413 million barrels per day in March to 5.968 million barrels per day in April.

However, Saudi Arabia's crude oil production increased slightly in April from 8.973 million barrels per day the previous month to 8.986 million barrels per day. In April, the country's refineries processed 2.545 million barrels per day, a decrease of 150,000 barrels per day.

Since the end of 2022, OPEC+ member countries have been implementing collective production reduction measures, and some member countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia have also introduced voluntary production reduction measures. Currently, OPEC+ member countries have reduced production by a total of 5.86 million barrels per day, which accounts for about 5.7% of global demand, including 3.66 million barrels of collective production reduction measures and 2.2 million barrels of voluntary production reduction measures.

On June 2, OPEC+ agreed to extend the collective oil production reduction plan until 2025 and gradually reduce the amount of voluntary production cuts within one year starting from the fourth quarter of this year.

Oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia have been maintaining production cuts in hopes of maintaining high oil prices by reducing supply. However, OPEC-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia, are facing considerable pressure in the face of strong growth in non-OPEC+ oil-producing countries and the desire of the Asian market, which accounts for 82% of Saudi Arabia's oil exports, to lower prices.

At the beginning of June, Saudi Arabia lowered the official selling price of its flagship product, Arab Light crude oil, delivered to Asia in July, the first time in five months.

Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman said earlier this month that if the market continues to weaken, OPEC+ can choose to halt oil production increases or reduce production directly to stabilize or raise oil prices.

Will energy demand continue to grow?

Various organizations such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), OPEC, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) have recently released forecasts for future energy demand. Except for the IEA, the other two institutions remain optimistic.

OPEC still maintains its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024. On June 6, OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said in a speech at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum that world oil demand will continue to grow in the coming years. He said that driven by growth in markets such as China, India, the Middle East, and Latin America, global oil demand will increase by 2.25 million barrels per day in 2024.

In its June Short-Term Energy Outlook report, the EIA further raised its expectations for global oil demand and predicted that global oil demand this year may reach a record high and that global oil demand is expected to rise next year.

However, the International Energy Agency recently stated in a statement that "global oil demand growth is slowing and will peak in 2030."

The report pointed out that by 2030, global oil production, led by the United States, is expected to surge and is expected to exceed demand growth, pushing idle production capacity to unprecedented levels, or even reversing the management of the international crude oil market by OPEC+.