Zhitongcaijing APP learned that Guosheng Securities issued a research report stating that the evaluation of communication and technology is driven by the three battlegrounds, and the core main force is the optical communication industry. its performance has been verified by landing in 2023, and its development is good in 2024. The valuation has begun to turn to 2025, and the demand for optical communication promoted by the overseas AI development continues to increase. The performance of the company is also continuously revised upwards, and the 'low valuation' that has been in operation for a long time is expected to reshape the valuation of Kote. and embody its true value.
Zhongsheng Securities' main points are as follows:
The concept of Kote estimation has emerged under the new productive forces.
The new productive forces represent advanced productivity led by innovation, based on technological breakthroughs and industrial transformation, with significant features of high technology, high efficiency, and high quality. Under such circumstances, the concept of Kote valuation (technology characteristic valuation) has emerged, aiming to reevaluate cutting-edge technology industries, repair their undervaluation relative to international levels, promote technological innovation and industrial upgrading, and achieve the long-term development of the economy.
Guosheng Securities believes that there are three underlying logics for the 'Kote evaluation' of the communication industry: going overseas, positioning, and undervaluation.
Going overseas, walking with giants - the core development driving force, the global discourse power of communication manufacturing is gradually strengthening, and high growth drives high valuation: optoelectronic module companies represented by Zhongji Innolight, Eoptolink Technology, and PCB industry such as WUS Printed Circuit occupy a considerable discourse power in the global market. At the same time, the status of optical device suppliers represented by Suzhou TFC Optical Communication is also very important. With the gradual landing of overseas AI development, overseas demand continues to increase, and future performance is expected to have high growth rates and corresponding high valuation potential.
Positioning, breakthrough of technological bottlenecks - high barrier racecourse, establishing the competitiveness from 0 to 1, domestic scarcity drives high valuation: chip manufacturers mainly represented by Semptian Communication and Leadcore Technology, choose to stay on those high threshold and core racecourses, which are dominated by overseas switch chips and light chips, gradually expanding downstream customer accumulation and accumulating practical experience from 0 to 1. With the development of domestic computing power, the company's demand is expected to continue to expand, and scarcity value is expected to endow it with high valuation.
Undervaluation, a complete scientific research system - 'heavyweight' blue chips, long-term undervaluation, and reshaping valuation through new businesses that are expected to achieve a 'big turn': traditional communication blue chip companies represented by ZTE and Unisplendour Corporation, have relatively large business lines themselves, have been undervalued for a long time due to the low growth rate of traditional businesses. but they have laid out new AI businesses, have a complete scientific research system, and have a good customer base. they are expected to reshape their valuations under the logic of Kote estimation.
Two target recommendations:
Computing power aspect
Optical communication: Zhongji Innolight (300308.SZ), Eoptolink Technology (300502.SZ), Suzhou TFC Optical Communication (300394.SZ), T&S Communications (300570.SZ), Tengjing Technology (688195.SH), Advanced Fiber Resources (300620.SZ), Accelink Technologies (002281.SZ), Decent Chips(688205.SH), Liantech Technology(301205.SZ), Huagong Tech(000988.SZ), Leadcore Technology (688498.SH), CIG Shanghai (603083.SH), Dongguan Mentech Optical & Magnetic (002902.SZ).
Computational power optimization/scheduling/leasing: Embedway Technologies (603496.SH), Si-Tech Information Technology (300608.SZ), Dawning Information Industry (603019.SH), China Mobile(600941.SH), China United Network Communications (600050.SH), China Telecom(601728.SH).
Computing power equipment: ZTE Corporation (000063.SZ), Unisplendour Corporation (000938.SZ), Ruijie Networks (301165.SZ), Semptian Communication (688702.SH), Feilingdo (301191.SZ), Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138.SH), WUS Printed Circuit (002463.SZ), Horizon Robotics(688256.SH).
Liquid cooling: Shenzhen EnviCool Technology (002837.SZ), Shenzhen Shenling Environmentally Friendly Energy (301018.SZ), Guangzhou Goland Energy Conservation Technology Development (300499. SZ), Nanjing Canatal Data-Centre Environmental Tech(603912.SH).
Edge computing platform: Meig Smart Technology (002881.SZ), Fibocom Wireless Inc. (300638.SZ), Quectel Wireless Solutions (603236.SH).
Satellite Communications: China Satellite Communications (601698.SH), China Spacesat (600118.SH), GeneW Technologies (688418.SH), Hwa Create Corporation (300045.SZ), CETC Chips Technology Inc. (600877.SH), Guangzhou Haige Communications Group Incorporated (002465.SZ).
With regard to data elements:
Operators: China Telecom (601728.SH), China Mobile (600941.SH), China United Network Communications (600050.SH).
Data visualization: HaoHan Deep (688292.SH), Embedway Technologies (603496.SH), Shenzhen Sinovatio Technology (002912.SZ).
BOSS system: Asiainfo Tech (01675), Shenzhen Tianyuan DIC Information Technology (300047.SZ), Business-Intelligence of Oriental Nations Corporation (300166.SZ).
Risk reminders: AI development is not as expected, computational demand is not as expected, market competition risk.