The company resumed trading on June 17. We believe that after extending the audit, PricewaterhouseCoopers still issued an unqualified opinion on the company's performance. To a certain extent, it provided Pegia with stronger audit endorsement, and may increase investors' confidence in the company's finances and internal control. At the business level, the company's 5M24 implant growth rate is clearly superior to other TAVR leaders. The market share will further increase during the year, while the neurological intervention sector will continue to benefit from the release of new ischemia products, and it is expected that the sector will be profitable during the year. Looking at the medium term, major new products such as TaurriO are expected to be approved domestically in 2025/26E, which is expected to become a catalyst for the company's stock price. Maintain a “buy” rating and give a target price of HK$10.2.
PwC will still issue standard unqualified opinions after extending the audit, which may inject more confidence into investors. Trading of the company's shares was previously suspended on April 2. During the suspension period, in addition to auditing the disclosed financial assets, the auditor also extended an inspection of the company's various financial and internal control projects, and finally issued unqualified opinions. To a certain extent, it provided Peijia with stronger audit endorsements, which may increase investors' confidence in the company's finances and internal control. At the performance level, revenue in 2023 was RMB 4.4 billion (+76% YoY), with revenue of central valve and neurological intervention +73% and +78%, respectively; gross profit margin of 73.8% (+3.5pcts YoY), of which valve gross margin was 85.7% (+6.0pcts YoY), gross profit margin of neurological intervention 65.1% (+1.9pctsYOy); net loss to mother of RMB390 million (vs loss in 2022).
Heart valves: Market share has been rising steadily, and three major products have been approved as potential stock price catalysts.
In 2023, the sector's revenue was RMB 190 million (+73% YoY), with 2,484 implants (+106% YoY), and the company's share of the stock market was +4pcts to 20% (+3pcts to 17% in the case of commercial implantation). According to our statistics, Peijia 5M24 implants +> 40% year over year, which is an excellent performance among TAVR leaders. We expect 2024E's share of the stock market to increase to 25%. Looking at the medium term, we believe that 3 new products that are expected to be approved for domestic listing in 2025/26E are expected to be the company's stock price catalysts, including: 1) Taurio for reflux; 2) GeminiOne; and 3) TaurusNXT.
Neural intervention: The gross margin under collection is relatively stable, and 2024E is expected to achieve sector profits. In 2023, the revenue of the sector was RMB 260 million (+78% YoY), with revenue from hemorrhage/ischemia/pathway products +45%/+118%/+85% year-on-year. The strong growth in ischemia products is mainly due to the fact that new products with a short time to market, such as Syphonet embolization stents (revenue +339%), Tethys AS suction catheters (revenue +88%), and Fastunnel delivery balloon dilation catheters, are still in the rapid release period. The spring ring collection results in 21 provinces were implemented in May 2023. The company's spring ring sales volume in 2023 increased by 4pcts to 10%, and the adjusted gross margin of the company declined by only 1.1 pcts year on year. The performance was stable. The sector is expected to achieve a profit of RMB 10-20 million in 2024E.
Maintain a “buy” rating and give a target price of HK$10.2. Our model assumes that 2026ETAVR will face collection. The launch of the next three major new products will hedge the potential impact of some collection. The company's 2024E/25E/26E revenue is expected to be RMB 650 million/890 million/90 million yuan. The DCF continues to be used to value the company (WACC: 10.8%; sustainable growth rate: 2%), with a target price of HK$10.2.
Investment risks: Sales fell short of expectations; industry competition intensified; collection time was earlier than expected; TAVR penetration rate increased less than expected; internationalization progress fell short of expectations.