Today, petroleum stocks in the Hong Kong A market collectively rose. As of press time, the Hong Kong stock market rose nearly 3%.$CNOOC (00883.HK)$rose more than 5%.$PETROCHINA (00857.HK)$, $CHINA OILFIELD (02883.HK)$rose more than 4%,$SINOPEC CORP (00386.HK)$rose more than 3%.

Yueyang Xingchang Petro-chemical rose more than 6%, Jiangsu Baoli International Investment rose more than 3%, PetroChina rose more than 1%, and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, North Huajin Chemical Industries, etc. followed the rise.

On the news, oil prices rose more than 1% at the close on Tuesday. Brent crude oil futures rose by $1.08, or 1.3%, to $85.33 per barrel, while U.S. crude oil futures rose by $1.24, or 1.5%, to $81.57 per barrel.

In addition, it is worth noting that “Stock God” Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway company has been buying shares of Occidental Petroleum every trading day in the past 9 trading days. The latest shareholding ratio has reached nearly 29%.

Buffett continues to increase holdings of Occidental Petroleum for 9 consecutive days.

According to regulatory documents, Berkshire Hathaway Company has been buying shares of Occidental Petroleum every trading day from June 5th to Monday, June 17th. A total of 7.3 million shares were added at a purchase price around $60 per share.

After the increase, Berkshire Hathaway's shareholding in Occidental Petroleum exceeded 255 million shares, with a shareholding ratio of 28.8%. It is the largest institutional investor in Occidental Petroleum, and Occidental Petroleum is currently the sixth-largest stock holding in Berkshire Hathaway.

It is also worth noting that Berkshire Hathaway also holds $10 billion worth of preferred shares in Occidental Petroleum and has subscription warrants to buy 83.9 million shares of common stock at $50 billion. This means that Buffett's shareholding ratio in Occidental Petroleum may even exceed 40%.

However, as early as August 2022, Berkshire Hathaway received regulatory approval to buy up to 50% of Occidental Petroleum’s shares. Since then, Buffett has continued to increase his holdings of Occidental Petroleum.

It can be seen that Buffett is optimistic about the long-term development trend of the oil industry. He has stated that due to the difficulty in increasing production capacity, oil will become a scarcer investment energy in the future.

As for the investment in Occidental Petroleum, Buffett once stated that the company is optimistic about the large oil and gas assets owned by Occidental Petroleum in the United States, as well as its leading position in carbon capture. He believes that oil and gas production helps the United States alleviate its energy dependence, which is in line with the interests of shareholders and the country.

The peak season is approaching, and oil prices are expected to remain strong.

In the OPEC+ meeting declaration in early June, it announced the extension of voluntary production cuts of 1.65 million barrels per day announced in April 2023 until the end of 2025, and the extension of voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day announced in November 2023 until the end of September 2024. Also, the Saudi minister said that if the market weakens, OPEC+ can suspend or reverse crude oil production to boost oil prices.

After a two-month correction, international oil prices began to rebound on June 5th. As of June 18th, WTI July crude oil futures closed up $1.24, or more than 1.54%, at $81.57 per barrel. Brent August crude oil futures closed up $1.08, up more than 1.28%, at $85.33 per barrel.

As international oil prices have rebounded in recent days, multiple investment banks on Wall Street are increasingly bullish on oil prices, and the market generally predicts that oil prices will rise in the third quarter.

Among them, Morgan Stanley analysts believe that the recent drop in international oil prices is only temporary, and oil prices will rise again in the coming months as demand increases.

Goldman Sachs said in a recent research report that healthy consumption and robust demand for transportation and cooling during the summer will create a “significant” shortage in crude oil supply, reaching 1.3 million barrels per day in the third quarter. Therefore, the price of Brent crude oil may rise to $86 per barrel in Q3.

"Lower boundary" of $75: Strong summer demand, China-US inventory replenishment, return of financial demand, OPEC "hold" the bottom line. Goldman Sachs wrote that the data showed that the US summer tourist season started well this year, with record-high air passenger traffic on American Airlines and strong aviation fuel demand in July, leading to an expected high of 1.3 million barrels per day of crude oil supply deficit in the third quarter. In addition, when the oil price falls, demand from China and the US strategic oil reserves (SPR) tends to increase. Typically, when Brent crude oil falls below $85 per barrel, China seizes the opportunity to replenish. In addition, with the recent drop in diesel prices below Asia's natural gas prices, some transportation trucks may switch from natural gas to diesel. Regarding US Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR), the US Department of Energy announced last week that they will bid for 6 million barrels of crude oil from September to December, confirming that falling oil prices will stimulate replenishment behavior. Goldman Sachs analyzed that for every $10 drop in WTI crude oil, the average monthly replenishment of strategic oil reserves increases by about 1.5 million barrels.

Citigroup Bank recently predicted that global crude oil inventories will decline in July and August due to typical summer demand increases, active refinery operations, and continued geopolitical and meteorological risks. The investment bank said that there is a certain risk of an increase in crude oil prices in the third quarter, and it continues to be bullish on the Brent crude oil price between $55 and $60 per barrel in 2025.

In addition, the EIA report added fuel to the bullish sentiment in the market.

In its latest June Short-Term Energy Outlook report, the EIA further raised its global oil demand expectations and expects global oil demand to reach record highs this year, with global oil demand next year expected to continue to rise. At the same time, the institution also lowered its forecast for global oil production this year. The EIA stated that the postponement of OPEC+ production increases will lead to a decline in global crude oil inventories in the first quarter of next year and bring upward pressure on oil prices.

For the energy sector, Everbright Securities pointed out that the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is tense, and crude oil supply and demand is expected to tighten under the leadership of OPEC+. They are bullish on maintaining high oil prices. The "three barrels of oil" demonstrate strong performance resilience during periods of oil price volatility, and the profit center is expected to further increase. Global upstream capital expenditures are expected to continue to recover, and the oilfield service market is expected to remain prosperous. The oilfield services under the "three barrels of oil" are expected to fully benefit.

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