Central Steel Sheet Research Memo (3): Accelerating Movement toward Decarbonization. Maintaining Solid Sales as the Only Electric Furnace Thick Plate Specialized Manufacturer.

Fisco Japan · Jun 19 12:13

■事業環境

(一社)日本鉄鋼連盟が発表した2023年度の国内粗鋼生産量は、主要な販売先である自動車向けの鋼材が半導体不足の解消を受けて回復傾向を示したものの、建設向けが人手不足による工期の遅れ等により需要が弱含み、前年度比1.1%減の86,828千トンとなり、前年度に続き減少となった。なお、5年連続で1億トンを下回って推移している。中部鋼鈑＜5461＞が製造する厚板の2023年（暦年）の生産量は前年比6.5%減の8,358千トンと、新型コロナウイルス感染症拡大（以下、コロナ禍）で落ち込んだ後は2年連続で増加するも、その後再び落ち込んだ状況である。厚板は、造船、土木・建築、産業機械が主な需要先である。造船需要は、2020年にコロナ禍で落ち込んだため以降は低迷しているが、産業機械需要は輸出向けや国内の設備投資回復に伴い堅調に推移した。土木需要はコロナ禍にあっても国土強靭化計画により堅調で、建築需要も非住宅分野である倉庫・物流施設やデータセンターに加え、首都圏を中心に大型開発案件が堅調に推移した。同社の厚板の用途別受注は、2022年度で産業機械が62.5%、土木・建築が25.9%と合計で9割近くを占めており、需要が低下している造船の比率は0.3%と極めて低いため、電炉厚板専業メーカーである同社は堅調な販売を維持できていると言える。

一方、供給サイドでは、国内需要の頭打ちを懸念する鉄鋼大手が相次いで高炉の生産集約化や休止を打ち出している。粗鋼生産においても電炉の比率が高まることが予想されるなか、電炉厚板専業メーカーとして汎用品の厚板に強みを持つ同社のポジションは優位なものとなってきている。鉄鋼大手は供給能力を削減すると同時に、ユーザーに対して原料・エネルギーコストの価格への転嫁を求めており、需給面から価格上昇圧力が働いているという。このことも同社にとって追い風となるだろう。

2022年度の全国地域別厚板出荷は、関東地区が24%、関西地区が20%、中部地区が40%と、この3地区で84%を占めている。中部圏においては、愛知で開催されるアジア競技大会（2026年）、リニア事業（当初予定2027年度）、名鉄名古屋駅再開発（当初予定2022年度）、名古屋栄地区再開発（2024年度から順次）、岐阜駅前再開発（2028年度）、東海環状自動車道全線開通（2026年）と工事イベントが目白押しである。中部圏に厚板工場を構えるのは同社しかないため、輸送コスト面からも受注に期待がかかる。

政府は、脱炭素化社会の実現に向けて、1) 2030年度に温室効果ガスを2013年度比46%に削減、2) 2050年までにカーボンニュートラルを実現するという目標を掲げており、国内企業では脱炭素化が加速している。電気炉はCO2排出量が高炉に比べて少なく、主原料の鉄スクラップを自国でリサイクル資源として調達・活用できるため、電炉製品に対する関心が急速に高まっている。高炉の鉄鋼大手も電気炉への投資や参入を発表している。日本製鉄＜5401＞は、2022年から瀬戸内製鉄所広畑地区（姫路市）で電気炉の運転を開始しており、さらに2地区で大型電気炉建設の本格的な検討に入ったことを公表した。JFEスチール(株)も西日本製鉄所倉敷地区にある高炉の電気炉への転換と、東日本製鉄所千葉地区でのステンレス製造の電気炉新設を公表した。こうした動きのなかで、サプライチェーン上流・下流における温室効果ガス排出量の測定（スコープ3）の義務化や規制、炭素税の導入等の動きも注目されており、同社の製品に対する関心は一層高まると弊社では見ている。

（執筆：フィスコアナリスト　村瀬智一）

■Business environment

Domestic crude steel production volume for fiscal 2023 announced by the Japan Iron and Steel Federation (one company) showed a recovery trend in response to the resolution of semiconductor shortages for steel, which is the main sales destination, but demand for construction weakened due to delays in the construction period due to labor shortages, etc., and fell 1.1% from the previous fiscal year to 86,828 thousand tons, continuing to decline from the previous fiscal year. Furthermore, it has been falling below 100 million tons for 5 consecutive years. The production volume of thick plates manufactured by Chubu Kohan ＜5461＞ in 2023 (calendar year) decreased 6.5% from the previous year to 8,358,000 tons, and even though it increased for 2 consecutive years after falling due to the spread of the novel coronavirus infection (hereinafter, COVID-19), it fell again thereafter. The main demand for thick plates is shipbuilding, civil engineering/construction, and industrial machinery. Demand for shipbuilding fell in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and has been sluggish since then, but demand for industrial machinery remained steady as export and domestic capital investment recovered. Demand for civil engineering was strong due to the national land resilience plan even in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, and in addition to warehouses, logistics facilities and data centers in the non-residential sector, large-scale development projects remained steady, mainly in the metropolitan area. The company's orders for thick plates by application accounted for a total of nearly 90% in fiscal 2022, with industrial machinery accounting for 62.5% and civil engineering/construction, and since the ratio of shipbuilding where demand is declining is extremely low at 0.3%, it can be said that the company, which specializes in electric furnace thick plates, has maintained steady sales.

Meanwhile, on the supply side, major steel companies concerned about a plateau in domestic demand have announced the intensification or suspension of production of blast furnaces one after another. As the ratio of electric furnaces is expected to increase even in crude steel production, the position of the company, which has strengths in general-purpose thick plates, is becoming dominant as a manufacturer specializing in thick plates for electric furnaces. Major steel companies are reducing supply capacity, and at the same time, they are asking users to transfer raw material/energy costs to prices, and it is said that price upward pressure is working from the supply-demand side. This will also be a boost for the company.

The Kanto region accounts for 84% of thick plate shipments by region nationwide in 2022, with the Kanto region accounting for 24%, the Kansai region 20%, and the Chubu district 40%. In the Chubu region, there are plenty of construction events, such as the Asian Games (2026) to be held in Aichi, linear business (originally scheduled 2027), Meitetsu Nagoya Station redevelopment (originally scheduled for 2022), Nagoya Sakae district redevelopment (sequentially from 2024), Gifu Station redevelopment (2028), and the opening of the entire Tokai-Kanjo Expressway line (2026). Since the company is the only company that has a thick plate factory in the Chubu region, expectations are placed on order acceptance from a transportation cost perspective.

In order to realize a decarbonized society, the government has set goals of 1) reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 46% in fiscal 2030 compared to fiscal 2013, and 2) achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, and domestic companies are accelerating decarbonization. Electric furnaces have lower CO2 emissions compared to blast furnaces, and since steel scrap, which is the main raw material, can be procured and utilized as recycled resources in one's own country, interest in electric furnace products is rapidly growing. Steel giants for blast furnaces have also announced investments and entry into electric furnaces. Nippon Steel ＜5401＞ has begun operating electric furnaces in the Setouchi Steel Works Hirohata district (Himeji City) from 2022, and further announced that it has begun full-scale studies on large-scale electric furnace construction in 2 districts. JFE Steel Co., Ltd. also announced the conversion of blast furnaces in the Kurashiki district of the West Japan Steel Works to electric furnaces and the construction of a new electric furnace for stainless steel manufacturing in the East Japan Steel Works Chiba area. Amidst these movements, movements such as the obligation to measure greenhouse gas emissions (scope 3) upstream and downstream of the supply chain, and the introduction of carbon taxes are also attracting attention, and we see that interest in the company's products will further increase.

(Author: FISCO Analyst Tomokazu Murase)

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

中部鋼鈑 Research Memo（3）：脱炭素化への動きが加速。電炉唯一の厚板専業メーカーとして堅調な販売を維持

Central Steel Sheet Research Memo (3): Accelerating Movement toward Decarbonization. Maintaining Solid Sales as the Only Electric Furnace Thick Plate Specialized Manufacturer.

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