Central Steel Research Memo (1): Although there is a decrease in revenue and profit for the March 2024 fiscal year, the planned sales and profits have been achieved.

Fisco Japan · Jun 19 12:11

■要約

中部鋼鈑＜5461＞は、鉄スクラップを原料に電気炉で高品質な厚鋼板（以下、厚板）を製造し、販売する電炉厚板専業メーカーである。同社の厚板は、産業機械・建設機械、土木・建築など、様々な分野で社会のインフラを支えている。

1. 2024年3月期の業績概要

2024年3月期の連結業績は、売上高67,785百万円（前期比11.2%減）、営業利益10,425百万円（同15.0%減）、経常利益10,228百万円（同17.0%減）、親会社株主に帰属する当期純利益7,133百万円（同16.8%減）と前期比減収減益となった。2023年11月に業績予想を修正し、売上高については67,600百万円（期首70,600百万円）、営業利益については9,900百万円（同10,100百万円）としたが、修正後計画との比較では、売上高は100.3%とわずかに超過、各段階利益については営業利益が105.3%、経常利益が104.4%、親会社株主に帰属する当期純利益が106.5%といずれも予想を上回っての着地だった。売上高については、第2四半期に実施した電気炉の大型設備工事に伴う操業休止に加え、主力製品である厚板の主需要先である産業機械、建設機械、建築・土木の各業種における設備投資の減少や建築案件の工期遅延等により需要が伸び悩んだことが影響した。21中期経営計画（2021～2023年度）の最終年度ということもあって積極的な営業活動を展開し、計画値はクリアしたものの、好調だった前期業績を上回ることはできなかった。利益面では、鉄スクラップをはじめとする原材料・諸資材価格が前期を下回ったことにより調達コストが低減し、メタルスプレッドの年度平均が前年度を上回ったことが寄与したほか、2023年11月の計画見直し後の販売数量を達成したことにより計画値を上回ったと考えられる。

2. 2025年3月期の業績見通し

2025年3月期の連結業績は、売上高68,000百万円（前期比0.3%増）、営業利益9,500百万円（同8.9%減）、経常利益9,100百万円（同11.0%減）、親会社株主に帰属する当期純利益6,100百万円（同14.5%減）と売上高は前期並み、各段階利益は減益を予想している。2025年3月期も第2四半期から第3四半期にかけて電気炉大型設備工事が計画されており、操業休止の影響を受けることから、粗鋼生産量は51万トンと2024年3月期実績の56万トンを下回り、販売数量についても2024年3月期並みの53万トンを見込んでいる。ただし国内厚板市場については、資材価格高騰や人手不足による需要への影響は残るものの、国土強靭化対策による土木建築向け需要が期待できることや、国内のメイン・サプライヤーである高炉メーカー各社が資材や物流等のコスト上昇を根拠に継続的な販売価格の値上げを進めていることから、今後も高値水準での推移が見込まれており、売上高予想は比較的確度が高いと弊社では見ている。利益面については、主原料である鉄スクラップが2024年3月期から高値水準で推移していることや、エネルギー・諸資材価格の高騰、さらには物流の2024年問題によるコスト上昇といった諸要因から厳しい状況が予想される。加えて設備除却損等の工事関係費用計上も予定されているため減益との見通しを立てたが、コスト上昇分を適正に販売価格に反映するなどの対応により、利益面での計画達成に懸念はないと弊社では見ている。

3. 24中期経営計画の発表

2024年5月、2024年度からスタートする3ヶ年の中期経営計画「24中期経営計画」を策定した。この中計では基本方針として以下の3点を挙げ、中山製鋼所＜5408＞との業務提携を活用して推進する。

(1) 鉄鋼製品（厚板及び鋳片）80万トンの販売

高炉メーカーの構造改革による設備集約に伴い、市場の厚板へのニーズが高まることを想定した対応に加え、顧客の脱炭素需要に応えるため、鉄鋼製品の販売量を80万トンまで高めるべく製造・販売体制の強化を図る。

(2) 脱炭素対応

新電気炉の稼働による省エネルギー効果に加え、再生可能エネルギーの確保等を実施することで脱炭素化を進める。

(3) 持続可能な基盤整備

同社グループが長期的に成長できる基盤の構築を目指す。人的資本戦略、DX戦略・業務効率改善、ガバナンス・リスク管理・コンプライアンスの強化、効率的なバランスシート運営、環境・防災・BCP（事業継続計画）、子会社戦略等を推進する。

主要KPIとして、鉄鋼製品販売数量80万トン、設備投資額120億円、ROE（自己資本当期利益率）10%、連結経常利益150億円、DOE（自己資本配当率）3.5%、付加価値労働生産性※40百万円を掲げており、本中期経営計画において時価総額1,000億円を目指すとしている。

※（経常利益＋減価償却費＋人件費）÷従業員数で算出。

■Key Points

・電気炉はCO2排出量が高炉に比して約1/4

・DOE（自己資本配当率）をベースにした配当政策により株主還元を強化

・省エネ・環境対応型の最新鋭電気炉に更新する予定（2024年秋稼働予定）

・2027年3月期までの3ヶ年を期間とする中期経営計画を発表

（執筆：フィスコアナリスト　村瀬智一）

■Summary

Chubu Kohan ＜5461＞ is a manufacturer specializing in electric furnace thick plates that manufactures and sells high-quality thick steel plates (hereafter, thick plates) in electric furnaces using steel scrap as raw materials. The company's thick plates support social infrastructure in various fields such as industrial machinery/construction machinery, civil engineering/construction, etc.

1. Financial Summary for the Fiscal Year Ending March 31, 2024

Consolidated financial results for the fiscal year ended 2024/3 were net sales of 67,785 million yen (down 11.2% from the previous fiscal year), operating income of 10,425 million yen (down 15.0% from the same period), ordinary income of 10,228 million yen (down 17.0% from the same period), and net income attributable to parent company shareholders of 7,133 million yen (down 16.8% from the same period), resulting in a decrease in sales and profit from the previous fiscal year. Earnings forecasts were revised in 2023/11, and sales were set at 67,600 million yen (70,600 million yen at the beginning of the fiscal year) and operating income at 9,900 million yen (same 10,100 million yen), but in comparison with the revised plan, sales slightly exceeded 100.3%, operating income of 105.3%, ordinary income of 104.4%, and net income attributable to parent company shareholders of 106.5%, all of which exceeded expectations. Regarding sales, in addition to the suspension of operations due to large-scale equipment construction for electric furnaces carried out in the 2nd quarter, demand growth was affected by sluggish growth due to a decrease in capital investment in various industries of industrial machinery, construction machinery, and construction/civil engineering, which are the main demand destinations for thick plates, which are the main products, and construction period delays for construction projects. Since it is the final year of the 21 medium-term management plan (2021 to 2023), active sales activities were developed, and although the planned values were cleared, it was not possible to surpass the strong previous fiscal year results. In terms of profit, procurement costs were reduced because prices of raw materials and various materials, starting with steel scrap, fell below the previous fiscal year, and the fact that the annual average of metal spreads exceeded the previous fiscal year contributed, and it is thought that the planned value was exceeded by achieving sales volume after the 2023/11 plan review was achieved.

2. Earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending 2025/3

The consolidated financial results for the fiscal year ending 2025/3 are sales of 68,000 million yen (up 0.3% from the previous fiscal year), operating income of 9,500 million yen (down 8.9% from the same period), ordinary profit of 9,100 million yen (down 11.0% from the same period), and net income attributable to parent company shareholders of 6,100 million yen (same decrease 14.5%), and sales are on par with the previous fiscal year, and profit at each stage is expected to decline. Large electric furnace equipment construction is also planned for the fiscal year ending 2025/3 from the 2nd quarter to the 3rd quarter, and since it is affected by the suspension of operations, crude steel production volume is 510,000 tons, which is lower than the 2024/3 results of 560,000 tons, and sales volume is also expected to be 530,000 tons on par with the 2024/3 fiscal year. However, with regard to the domestic thick plate market, although the impact on demand due to soaring material prices and labor shortages remains, demand for civil engineering construction due to land resilience measures can be expected, and since blast furnace manufacturers, which are the main domestic suppliers, are proceeding with continuous price increases based on rising costs of materials, logistics, etc., it is expected that it will continue to be at a high level in the future, and we expect sales forecasts to be relatively accurate. On the profit side, a severe situation is expected from various factors such as the fact that steel scrap, which is the main raw material, has remained at a high price level since the 2024/3 fiscal year, soaring energy and material prices, and even rising costs due to 2024 logistics issues. Furthermore, since construction-related costs such as equipment removal losses are also planned, we anticipated a decrease in profit, but we believe that there is no concern about achieving the plan in terms of profit due to measures such as appropriately reflecting cost increases in sales prices.

3. Announcement of the 24 Mid-Term Management Plan

In 2024/5, we formulated the “24 Mid-Term Management Plan,” a three-year medium-term management plan starting in 2024. The following 3 points are listed as basic policies in this mid-term plan, and they will be promoted by utilizing a business alliance with Nakayama Steel Works ＜5408＞.

(1) Sales of 800,000 tons of steel products (thick plates and cast pieces)

In addition to responses that assume that market demand for thick plates will increase in line with equipment consolidation due to structural reforms of blast furnace manufacturers, we plan to strengthen the manufacturing and sales system to raise sales volume of steel products to 800,000 tons in order to respond to customer decarbonization demand.

(2) Decarbonization support

In addition to the energy saving effects of operating new electric furnaces, decarbonization will be promoted by securing renewable energy, etc.

(3) Sustainable infrastructure development

We aim to build a foundation where the Group can grow over the long term. We will promote human capital strategies, DX strategies and operational efficiency improvements, strengthening governance/risk management/compliance, efficient balance sheet management, environment/disaster prevention/BCP (business continuity plans), subsidiary strategies, etc.

Steel product sales volume of 800,000 tons, capital investment amount of 12 billion yen, ROE (actual return on equity) of 10%, consolidated ordinary income of 15 billion yen, DOE (dividend on equity) of 3.5%, and value-added labor productivity*40 million yen have been set as main KPIs, and the total market value is aimed at 100 billion yen in this medium-term management plan.

* Calculated by (ordinary profit+depreciation costs+labor costs) ÷ number of employees.

■Key Points

・Electric furnaces emit approximately 1/4 of CO2 compared to blast furnaces

・Strengthen shareholder returns through dividend policies based on DOE (dividend on equity ratio)

・Scheduled to be updated to an energy-saving and environmentally-friendly state-of-the-art electric furnace (scheduled to be put into operation in the fall of 2024)

・Announced a medium-term management plan with a period of 3 years until the fiscal year ending 2027/3

(Author: FISCO Analyst Tomokazu Murase)

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

中部鋼鈑 Research Memo（1）：2024年3月期は減収減益ながら、売上・利益とも計画値は達成

Central Steel Research Memo (1): Although there is a decrease in revenue and profit for the March 2024 fiscal year, the planned sales and profits have been achieved.

Risk Disclaimer

Statement